ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CHTR
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Revenue down 0.5% but margins at 24.7% — Lynch's framework sees a slow grower mispriced as a turnaround at 5x earnings.

cautiousNeutralconviction

Charter is a slow grower with stalwart-quality operations trading at fast-grower valuations — the market has given up on a business that refuses to break.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONpredictable

What type of company is this, and what should we expect?

TTM revenue declined 0.6% with Q4'25 revenue down 0.5% YoY
Operating margins steady at 24.7% in Q4'25, maintaining 24-25% range across cycles
Generates $3.76B quarterly operating cash flow despite revenue headwinds
45.3% of revenue from Residential Product Line, a mature cable segment

This framework classifies Charter as a textbook slow grower — minimal revenue movement, predictable operations, and cash generation from mature markets. Lynch would see this as the least exciting category but note the unusual stability of margins during revenue decline.

Revenue
THE PEG RATIOmispriced

Are we paying a fair price for the growth we're getting?

P/E ratio of 4.98 in Q4'25 — lowest in a decade
Revenue declining 0.5% YoY, making traditional PEG calculation negative
Earnings yield of 5.02% versus 4.33% treasuries
Market implies -8.76% perpetual FCF decline via reverse DCF

With negative growth, the PEG ratio breaks down mathematically, but the framework sees something more interesting: we're paying recession prices (5x P/E) for a business with stable operations. This violates Lynch's principle that stable companies deserve stable multiples.

P/E Ratio
THE BALANCE SHEET TESTleveraged

Can this company survive trouble?

Net debt to EBITDA at 17.8x in Q4'25
Free cash flow positive at $426M in Q4'25 despite heavy capex
Interest coverage data not provided but FCF covers obligations
88.7% of operating cash flow allocated to network infrastructure

The framework sees high leverage but also sees a business generating cash through the cycle. Lynch would worry about the debt load but appreciate that even with massive capex, the company remains FCF positive — this isn't a balance sheet heading for trouble.

Debt / Equity
WHERE IN THE STORYmature

Is this early, middle, or late in the growth story?

Revenue declining for multiple quarters, down 0.5% in Q4'25
Operating margins at 95th percentile despite revenue pressure
Management targeting capex normalization to 13-14% by 2028 from current peak
Stock down 73.2% from $821 peak

This framework sees late innings for the growth story — the cable boom is over. But interestingly, we're potentially in early innings of a value story, with the market pricing in permanent decline while management invests for a different future.

Operating Margin
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework, Charter presents as a slow grower priced like a turnaround — trading at 5x earnings with stable operations and positive cash flow. Lynch famously said 'boring is good' for investors, and Charter delivers predictable boredom at a price that assumes exciting disaster. The framework suggests the market has confused a mature business with a dying one. But here's the Lynch question: if you can't explain why it will grow, why own it instead of the 4.33% treasury?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Explore
Fastenal CompanyFASTTexas Instruments IncorporatedTXNMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.MPWRCoStar Group, Inc.CSGPPaychex, Inc.PAYXAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ALNY
EDUCATIONAL ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICEv2