ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.
Communication ServicesTelecommunications Services
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Charter's 73% discount to DCF fair value reflects -8.76% perpetual decline expectations for a business generating $17.6B annual FCF.

Marks framework
Bullish

Revenue down 0.5% but margins at 24.7% — Lynch's framework sees a slow grower mispriced as a turnaround at 5x earnings.

Lynch framework
Neutral
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue composition: 45.3% Residential Product Line, 25.3% Internet, 14.6% Video, 7.8% Commercial
Revenue trajectory: -0.6% TTM with Q4'25 down 0.5% YoY
Operating margins: Stable 24-25% range, currently 24.7% in Q4'25
Market position: Cable operator classified as slow grower with predictable cash flows

Charter operates as a traditional cable company generating revenue from residential connectivity services, with nearly half coming from its core product bundle. Despite modest revenue declines, the company maintains remarkably stable operating margins in the mid-20s, characteristic of a mature infrastructure business with pricing power.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Howard Marks sees Charter's -8.76% implied decline as 'extreme pessimism meeting stable reality,' while Peter Lynch asks why own a slow grower at 5x earnings when treasuries pay 4.33%—and insiders are voting with their feet. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and discover where these investing legends agree and diverge on Charter's prospects.

Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $4.4B in Q4'25 ($426M quarterly) from $3.76B operating cash flow
Capital allocation: 88.7% of operating cash flow to capex in Q4'25
Shareholder returns: $766M in Q4'25 buybacks, $5.13B over trailing four quarters
Peak investment: Management expects 2025 as peak capex year, declining to 13-14% of revenue by 2028
SBC impact: 1.05% of revenue in Q4'25

Charter generates substantial cash flows but currently redirects most back into network infrastructure upgrades, leaving limited free cash flow after this heavy investment cycle. The company expects capital intensity to moderate significantly after 2025, which should free up cash for increased shareholder returns.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue trend: Declining 0.6% TTM with Q4'25 down 0.5% YoY
Margin stability: Operating margins consistent at 24-25% across cycles, 24.7% in Q4'25
ROIC trajectory: Peaked at 2.03% in Q4'20, now declining
Services growth: 26.2% of revenue, up from 19.8% three years ago
Operating leverage: 6.4x coefficient amplifies revenue changes

While revenue faces headwinds from cord-cutting, Charter demonstrates operational resilience through stable margins and a growing services segment. The high operating leverage means small revenue changes have magnified impacts on profitability, making the modest revenue decline more manageable than it might appear.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Leverage: Net debt to EBITDA at 17.8x in Q4'25
Insider behavior: Net selling of 4.1M shares over 12 months, estimated $1.8B value
Concentration risk: 45.3% revenue from single segment, Herfindahl index of 2988
Stress test: Survived Banking Crisis 2023 with 41.5% FCF decline, recovered in 2 quarters
Buyback timing: $35.3B spent at $458 average versus $220 current price, -52% return

Charter carries significant leverage and concentration risk, while insiders have been consistent sellers even as the company invests heavily in infrastructure. The company has proven resilient through past crises but the combination of high debt, concentrated revenue, and poor capital allocation timing creates vulnerability.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Capital Research Global Investors added $3.1B
STABLE6/10 long-term · avg 26 qtrs
124new719existing843holders-26 net693staying150exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 73.4% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Charter Communications, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$2,230
$7,770 lost. Recovery: Not recovered.

Trading at 22.7x EBITDA — the lowest in a decade — while maintaining 24.7% operating margins that built the premium.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Earnings yield: 5.02% versus 4.33% treasury yield, 69bp spread
Valuation extremes: EV/EBITDA at 22.7x (0th percentile over 10 years)
Market expectations: Reverse DCF implies -8.76% perpetual FCF decline
Price targets: Wide range $160-$500, median $210 versus $292 consensus
DCF discount: Current price 73% below $812 fair value estimate

Charter trades at decade-low valuations with an earnings yield exceeding treasuries, while the market prices in permanent business decline. This extreme pessimism creates a significant gap between current price and fundamental value, though the wide analyst target range reflects genuine uncertainty about the cable industry's future.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$812
73% discount
MARKET PRICE
$220
Price implies -8.8% growth · Trailing: -0.6%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Explore
PDD Holdings Inc.PDDCadence Design Systems, Inc.CDNSCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.CRWDTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc.TTWOShopify Inc.SHOPDatadog, Inc.DDOG
EDUCATIONAL ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICEv2