ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CCEP
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

At 8.42x earnings and 41.4% below intrinsic value, this predictable cash machine trades like it's going out of business.

cautiousBullishconviction

This framework sees a wonderfully predictable cash machine trading at depression prices because the market confuses boring with bad.

THE LENSES
THE EARNINGS MACHINEmagnificent

Does this business generate predictable earnings that compound over time?

Beat earnings estimates in 94.3% of quarters over 35 observations
Operating margin at 13.4% in Q4'25 sits at 90th percentile over 10 years
Revenue shows 0.973 correlation with inflation, demonstrating pricing power
Free cash flow recovered from 97.2% pandemic collapse to €1.51B in just 3 quarters

This framework finds exactly what it seeks — a business so predictable that 33 of 35 quarters met or exceeded expectations. The near-perfect inflation correlation shows pricing power that turns cost pressures into revenue growth, while decade-high margins demonstrate operational excellence.

Operating Income
OWNER EARNINGSexceptional

How much cash does the owner actually get to keep?

Free cash flow of €1.51B in Q4'25 with minimal stock compensation at 0.20% of revenue
FCF conversion strong with €1.93B operating cash flow generating €1.51B free cash
83.6% of operating cash returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks in Q4'25
Consistent cash generation through cycles, fully recovered from COVID collapse

Applying this lens reveals a cash conversion machine — nearly 80% of operating cash becomes free cash with negligible dilution. The business generates real owner earnings that management promptly returns rather than hoards.

Free Cash Flow
THE OWNER'S MATHcompelling

If you bought this entire business today, would the earnings justify the price?

Trading at 8.42x earnings, 28th percentile over 10 years despite record margins
Current price of $92.48 sits 41.4% below DCF fair value of $157.92
Market implies -4.63% perpetual decline for a business growing FCF at 16%
Earnings yield of 2.97% below 4.33% treasury but P/E at historical lows

This framework sees a rare mispricing — the market values peak operational performance at recession multiples. The 41% discount to intrinsic value for a predictable cash generator defies the framework's expectation that quality commands premiums.

P/E Ratio
THE MOATsolid

Does this business have a durable competitive advantage?

73.7% revenue concentration in Europe suggests entrenched distribution networks
Operating margins stable at 13-14% through COVID stress and recovery
Revenue correlates 0.814 with Fed Funds rates, indicating defensive positioning
Gross margins at 35.8% sit at 20th percentile despite pricing power

The framework identifies a distribution moat — the logistics and relationships required to deliver beverages across Europe create barriers competitors cannot easily replicate. However, compressed gross margins suggest the moat protects market position better than pricing power.

Operating Margin
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

This framework sees what the market misses — a boringly wonderful business generating predictable cash at peak efficiency while trading at distressed valuations. The 41% gap between price and intrinsic value exists because investors chase growth stories while this cash machine compounds quietly. Would you rather own a thrilling business at 40x earnings or a predictable one at 8x that sends you checks?

This analysis applies Warren Buffett's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Warren Buffett. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
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