ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.
TechnologySoftware - Application
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Operating margins hit 32.3% while insiders sold for 20 straight quarters — excellence in execution, exodus in ownership.

Buffett framework
Leaning Bullish

Insiders sold for 20 consecutive quarters while margins peaked at 32.3% — the pendulum rarely signals this clearly.

Marks framework
Leaning Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

EDA software: 91% of revenue from Product and maintenance segment
Revenue: $1.44B in Q4'25, growing 14.1% year-over-year
Pricing power: Revenue correlates 97.6% with inflation
Geographic mix: 75.6% international, only 24.4% from United States
Segment concentration: Herfindahl index of 8,367 indicates extreme focus

Cadence sells mission-critical design software to semiconductor companies worldwide, with pricing power so strong that revenue tracks inflation almost perfectly. The 91% concentration in product revenue creates both stability and risk — customers depend on these tools, but the business has limited diversification.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett sees monopoly-like margins but questions why insiders sold for 20 straight quarters, while Marks calls the 0.46% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries a pendulum swung too far — yet all five legends missed the biggest anomaly in the data. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $1.59B trailing twelve months
R&D spending: 32.3% of revenue in Q4'25
Share buybacks: $925M during 2025 at average price of $616
Capital efficiency: 2.8% capex-to-revenue ratio
Stock compensation: Dropped to exactly 0% in Q4'25 from historical 0-9.3%

The company generates substantial cash and reinvests heavily in R&D while maintaining minimal capital needs. However, buybacks executed at $616 are now 54.8% underwater at current price of $279, and the complete elimination of stock-based compensation in Q4'25 represents either a data anomaly or unprecedented shift in compensation philosophy.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin: 32.3% in Q4'25, at 88th percentile historically
Revenue growth: Accelerated to 14.1% TTM from 10.9% in 2022
ROIC decline: Fell from 7.05% peak in Q4'22 to 4.3% in Q4'25
Working capital: Cash conversion cycle improved to -204.8 days
Earnings quality: Operating cash flow exceeded net income by 43% in Q4'25

Revenue and margins show exceptional strength, but return on invested capital has deteriorated significantly even as growth accelerated. The negative cash conversion cycle means customers pay Cadence before it pays suppliers — the ultimate sign of business quality — yet capital efficiency metrics are moving the wrong direction.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Insider selling: Net sellers for 20 consecutive quarters through Q1'26
Concentration risk: 91% revenue from single product segment
Stress resilience: Margins expanded during COVID, 2022 rate shock, and 2023 banking crisis
Operating leverage: Low 0.97 coefficient suggests stable cost structure
Balance sheet: Net cash position of $521M despite $2.48B debt

The persistent insider selling over five years while achieving record profitability raises questions about what management sees that public markets don't. However, the company has proven remarkably resilient through multiple crises, with margins actually expanding during stress periods rather than contracting.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $1.4B position
ACCUMULATING7/10 long-term · avg 43 qtrs
203new1,281existing1,484holders+41 net1,322staying162exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 86.9% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,210
$1,790 lost. Recovery: 74 days.

Stock-based compensation vanished to exactly 0% in Q4'25 after ranging 0-9.3% historically — either a data anomaly or the most dramatic compensation restructuring in EDA software history.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Valuation: 54.5x earnings with 0.46% earnings yield
Risk-free comparison: -3.87% spread versus 4.33% treasury yield
Market expectations: Implies 6.53% perpetual growth to justify premium
DCF assessment: Price 55.7% above calculated fair value of $179
Earnings reactions: Average 0.93% gain on beats across 37 consecutive quarters

The market prices Cadence for sustained excellence, requiring 6.53% perpetual growth to justify paying 54.5x earnings when treasuries yield 4.33%. With 37 consecutive earnings beats generating minimal price reactions, the market has incorporated perfection as the baseline expectation.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$179
56% premium
MARKET PRICE
$279
Price implies 6.5% growth · Trailing: 14.1%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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