ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CCEP
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Revenue growing 16% with perfect inflation correlation trades at 8.42x earnings — boring stalwart priced like a turnaround.

cautiousBullishconviction

This stable stalwart generates predictable cash flows with 13.4% operating margins, but at 8.42x earnings it's priced like a dying business — classic Lynch value in boring territory.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONstalwart

What type of company is this, and what should we expect from it?

TTM revenue growth of 16% with consistent dividend payments
Operating margins stable at 13.4% in Q4'25, 90th percentile over 10 years
Free cash flow of €1.51 billion with 83.6% returned to shareholders
Mature beverage bottler with 73.7% revenue from Europe

This framework classifies CCEP as a textbook stalwart — the large, steady grower Lynch appreciates for downside protection. Revenue growth at 16% pushes the upper boundary of stalwart territory, while the massive shareholder returns and stable margins confirm a mature business generating reliable cash.

Revenue
THE GROWTH STORYclear

Can I explain to an eleven-year-old why this company grows?

Bottles and distributes Coca-Cola products across Europe (73.7%) and Asia-Pacific (26.3%)
Revenue shows 0.973 correlation with inflation — near-perfect pricing power
16% TTM revenue growth driven by volume and price increases
Geographic expansion into Asia-Pacific provides growth runway

The growth story is beautifully simple: CCEP bottles the world's most recognized beverages and raises prices with inflation. Any child understands Coca-Cola, and the 0.973 inflation correlation proves pricing power that drives consistent growth.

Revenue by Geography
THE PEG RATIOexceptional

Am I paying a fair price for the growth I'm getting?

P/E ratio of 8.42x at 28th percentile over 10 years
TTM earnings growth supports 16% FCF growth
PEG ratio well below 1.0 assuming sustainable growth
Market implies -4.63% growth despite strong fundamentals

Applying this lens reveals exceptional value — the P/E of 8.42x against double-digit growth produces a PEG well below Lynch's 1.0 threshold. The market's implied negative growth rate creates the kind of pessimistic pricing Lynch sought in stalwarts.

P/E Ratio
THE BALANCE SHEET TESTfortress

Can this company survive trouble?

Interest coverage of 15.09x provides enormous debt service cushion
Current ratio and stable working capital indicate solid liquidity
Survived 97.2% FCF collapse during COVID, recovered in 3 quarters
Capital structure supports aggressive 53.7% of OCF in buybacks

The balance sheet passes Lynch's survival test with flying colors — 15x interest coverage means debt poses no threat, while the COVID stress test proved the business can weather extreme disruption. This financial strength enables the massive shareholder returns Lynch appreciates in mature companies.

Current Ratio
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying the Lynch framework reveals a classic stalwart trading at fast-grower discounts — 8.42x earnings for a business with perfect pricing power, fortress balance sheet, and 16% growth. The simple story (everyone knows Coca-Cola), sustainable competitive advantages, and pessimistic valuation create the setup Lynch loved in boring companies. Why is the market pricing permanent decline into a business that profits from inflation?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
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