ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CDNS
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Operating margins hit 32.3% while insiders sold for 20 straight quarters — excellence in execution, exodus in ownership.

cautiousLeaning Bullishconviction

A wonderful business at a wonderful price — exactly the combination this framework warns against when insiders flee.

THE LENSES
THE MOATfortress

Does this company have an enduring competitive advantage?

Operating margins of 32.3% in Q4'25, consistently above 30% for years
91% revenue concentration in Product and maintenance with 8,367 Herfindahl index
Revenue grew 14.1% TTM while maintaining gross margins above industry peers
Negative cash conversion cycle of -204.8 days — customers pay before Cadence spends

This framework sees a textbook moat in mission-critical EDA software where switching costs lock in semiconductor designers. The margin stability through cycles and ability to collect cash before spending it demonstrates pricing power that competitors cannot match.

Operating Margin
MANAGEMENT AS STEWARDSconcerning

Are insiders acting like owners who love the company?

Insiders sold net shares for 20 consecutive quarters totaling $50.6M annually
CEO compensation of $56.7M in 2026 while personally selling shares
Share buybacks of $925M in 2025 at average $616 vs current $279 — down 54.8%
Stock-based compensation mysteriously dropped to 0% in Q4'25 from historical 0-9.3%

This framework sees a troubling pattern — those who know the business best have sold systematically for five years while timing buybacks poorly. When the folks running the store are heading for the exits while collecting record pay, a prudent owner takes notice.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
THE OWNER'S MATHexpensive

If you bought this entire business today, would the earnings justify what you paid?

Trading at 54.5x earnings with 0.46% earnings yield vs 4.33% treasury yield
Price sits 55.7% above DCF fair value of $179
Market implies 6.53% perpetual growth to justify current $279 price
P/E at 60th percentile of 10-year range despite record performance

Applying this framework's math, paying $76 billion for $1.4 billion in earnings requires extraordinary faith. With treasuries yielding 4.33%, an owner could get 9x the yield risk-free — the premium demands growth this framework rarely sees sustained.

Earnings Yield
THE EARNINGS MACHINEexceptional

Are the earnings predictable and growing steadily?

Perfect earnings beat record — 37 consecutive double beats over 38 quarters
Revenue grew steadily from $2.99B to $4.77B TTM with 14.1% growth
Operating income hit 98th percentile in Q4'25 at $463M
Revenue shows 97.6% correlation with inflation — pricing power in any environment

This framework appreciates businesses that deliver like clockwork, and Cadence epitomizes predictability. The perfect beat record and inflation correlation suggest earnings an owner can count on regardless of economic weather.

Revenue
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Cadence presents this framework with a paradox — operational excellence paired with capital allocation concerns. The business earns monopoly-like margins selling mission-critical tools, yet those who built it are systematically exiting while the market pays 55x earnings. The math says wonderful businesses bought at wonderful prices make terrible investments. When insiders agree through their actions, should an outside owner disagree through their checkbook?

This analysis applies Warren Buffett's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Warren Buffett. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
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