ONE LEVEL DEEPER
EXCExelon Corporation
UtilitiesRegulated Electric
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

5.3% revenue growth cannot justify 18.5x earnings when gross margins collapse to negative 21.6%.

Lynch framework
Leaning Bearish

ROIC of 0.89% versus 5.09% cost of capital means every invested dollar destroys value, yet trades at 48.7x EBITDA.

Mauboussin framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Electric and gas utilities across seven jurisdictions serving 11 million customers
Revenue diversified: Commonwealth Edison 25.6%, Pepco Holdings 25.1%, BGE 18.4%, PECO 16.5%
Revenue growth: 5.3% TTM, typical for regulated utilities
Operating margin: 21.8% in Q4'25, maintained 18-22% range over eight quarters
Herfindahl index: 1980, indicating moderate segment concentration

Exelon operates as a traditional regulated utility with predictable revenue streams across multiple jurisdictions. The balanced portfolio prevents overreliance on any single market, while regulated monopoly status ensures stable margins regardless of economic conditions.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett sees a utility earning 0.89% on capital while trading at 48.7x cash flow — but Lynch notices insiders are buying $8.2 million worth anyway. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis.

Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Operating cash flow: $1.2B in Q4'25, down from $3.0B peak in Q2'16
Capital expenditures: $8.5B TTM, consuming 195% of operating cash flow in Q4'25
Free cash flow: negative $2.3B TTM
Dividends paid: $405M in Q4'25 despite negative free cash flow
Debt issued: $178M in Q4'25 to fund operations and dividends

All operating cash flow plus external financing feeds a massive infrastructure investment program. The company funds both growth capex and dividends through debt issuance, a sustainable practice only if regulators approve rate increases to support the expanded asset base.

FCF vs Capex
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Gross margin: collapsed from 45.7% in Q3'16 to negative 21.6% in Q4'25
Operating margin: stable at 21.8% in Q4'25, 93rd percentile
ROIC: 0.89% in Q4'25 versus 5.09% cost of capital
Revenue growth: steady 5.3% TTM, consistent with utility sector
First negative operating cash flow in company history: -$1.3B in Q1'21

The business shows a stark divergence between operational efficiency and underlying profitability. While management maintains strong operating margins through cost control, the historic collapse in gross margins reveals fundamental pressure that operational excellence cannot fully offset.

Gross Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Debt-to-equity: 1.76x in Q4'25, 90th percentile
Net debt/EBITDA: 25.7x in Q4'25, 95th percentile
Worst quarter: Q2'23 with operating margin falling to 14.6%
Insider activity: net buying of 187,410 shares over 12 months (~$8.2M)
Operating leverage coefficient: 1.1, low sensitivity typical of utilities

High leverage creates refinancing risk in a 4.33% treasury environment, while the capital-intensive business model requires continuous access to debt markets. Management's personal buying suggests confidence, but leverage metrics sit at multi-year extremes.

Debt / Equity
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Capital International Investors opened a $738M position
ACCUMULATING7/10 long-term · avg 48 qtrs
160new1,114existing1,274holders+39 net1,153staying121exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 88.8% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Exelon Corporation's worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$6,690
$3,310 lost. Recovery: 978 days.

When gross margins turn negative 21.6% while operating margins stay healthy at 21.8%, the cost structure is hiding in plain sight.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

EV/EBITDA: 48.7x in Q4'25, 95th percentile over 10 years
Earnings yield: 1.35% versus 4.33% treasury yield, negative 2.98% spread
P/E ratio: 18.5x for a utility growing revenue at 5.3%
Reverse DCF value: negative $1.19 versus $49.33 stock price
52-week position: 88.13%, near annual highs despite fundamental deterioration

The market prices Exelon for growth that regulated utilities rarely deliver. A negative DCF value suggests current pricing requires unrealistic expansion assumptions, while the earnings yield sits far below risk-free rates.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$-1
4247% discount
MARKET PRICE
$49
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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