ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ADI
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

A 27.3% price premium to fair value leaves no margin of safety, regardless of ADI's exceptional 31.5% operating margins.

cautiousLeaning Bearishconviction

This framework sees a superb business trading at prices that offer no margin of safety — where even excellence cannot protect capital.

THE LENSES
THE MARGIN OF SAFETYabsent

Does the price protect me from permanent loss of capital?

Price at $318 vs DCF fair value of $250 — 27.3% premium
P/E ratio of 45.73x at 70th percentile over 10 years
EV/Sales at 49.92x — 98th percentile, highest in company history
Market implies 5.51% perpetual growth vs 25.9% trailing growth

This framework sees no margin of safety whatsoever. The price demands not just continued excellence but perpetual outperformance. Even a reversion to the company's own historical median multiples would mean significant capital loss.

P/E Ratio
EARNINGS YIELD VS BONDSirrational

Does this offer a meaningful premium over bonds to justify equity risk?

Earnings yield of 0.55% vs treasury yield of 4.33%
Negative spread of -3.78 percentage points
28th percentile earnings yield over 10 years

With an earnings yield barely above half a percent, this framework sees no compensation for equity risk. The investor receives 8x less yield than treasuries while bearing full business risk — a proposition Graham would reject immediately.

Earnings Yield
THE EARNINGS RECORDexceptional

Has this business demonstrated consistent earnings over 7-10 years?

Revenue growth of 25.9% TTM with operating margin at 31.5% in Q1'26
EPS beats in recent quarters including 6.9% beat in Q1'26
95% positive earnings surprise rate over 39 quarters
Operating margin improved from 4.2% in Q4'19 to 31.5% in Q1'26

This framework acknowledges exceptional earnings performance with consistent beats and expanding margins. The record demonstrates the kind of reliability Graham sought — though at these prices, even excellence offers little protection.

Earnings Per Share
THE PRICE YOU PAYexcessive

What do you receive in earnings, assets, and dividends per dollar paid?

P/E of 45.73x — paying $45.73 for each dollar of earnings
EV/EBITDA of 103.6x at 83rd percentile over 10 years
For each dollar paid: 2.2 cents of earnings, negligible book value
Dividend yield approximately 1.4% based on payout patterns

This framework sees extreme prices across every metric. The investor pays dearly for each dollar of earnings or assets, receiving minimal current income. These are speculative multiples, not investment valuations.

EV / EBITDA
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a paradox: ADI demonstrates the earnings consistency and business quality Graham sought, yet trades at valuations he would consider speculative folly. With earnings yielding 0.55% against 4.33% treasuries and prices at historical extremes, this framework sees no margin of safety — only the hope that excellence continues indefinitely. The question this framework poses: why accept equity risk for one-eighth the yield of treasuries, even from a superior business?

This analysis applies Benjamin Graham's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Benjamin Graham. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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