ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.
TechnologySemiconductors
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

ADI's 71.2% gross margins prove its moat, but at 45.73x earnings, wonderful businesses can make terrible investments.

Buffett framework
Neutral

A 49.92x EV/Sales multiple at the 98th percentile while insiders dump shares — euphoria meeting distribution.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $25.9B TTM across four segments — semiconductors for diverse applications
Industrial: 46% of revenue — automated test equipment and data center infrastructure
Automotive: 28% of revenue — ADAS systems and vehicle electrification
Communications and Consumer: 26% combined — wireless infrastructure and devices
Geography: 69.9% international revenue with China representing 22.6% of total

ADI designs analog and mixed-signal semiconductors that convert real-world signals into digital data. The business model benefits from mission-critical applications where switching costs are high and design cycles are long, explaining the 71.2% gross margins in Q1'26.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett calls ADI a 'wonderful business at a terrible price' while insiders dump $54 million in shares—even 71.2% gross margins can't compute a path through 45.73x earnings. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and see where the legends agree and diverge.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $4.6B TTM with strong conversion from operations
R&D investment: 34% of operating cash flow in Q1'26 — innovation priority
Dividends: 35% of operating cash flow — consistent shareholder returns
Buybacks: 38% of operating cash flow with $11.8B total program
Stock compensation: 2.7% of revenue in Q1'26 — meaningful dilution
Capital allocation target: 100% of FCF returned to shareholders long-term

ADI runs a capital-light model with just 8% of cash flow going to capex while returning the majority to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The heavy R&D investment at 34% of cash flow reflects the innovation requirements of analog semiconductor leadership.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 25.9% TTM — acceleration from 0.4% during banking crisis 2023
Operating margin: 31.5% in Q1'26 — up from 4.2% in Q4'19
Gross margin: 71.2% in Q1'26 — improved 240bp year-over-year
ROIC: 1.94% in Q1'26 — below 8.58% cost of capital despite growth
Operating leverage: 2.0x coefficient — operating income grows twice as fast as revenue

The business shows exceptional near-term momentum with revenue acceleration and margin expansion reaching the 83rd percentile. However, ROIC remains below the cost of capital at 1.94% versus 8.58%, suggesting growth isn't creating economic value despite impressive headline numbers.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Insider selling: 178,844 shares sold over 4 quarters — estimated $54M reduction
Concentration risk: 45.8% revenue from Industrial segment, China 22.6% of total
Operating leverage: 2.0x means revenue declines hit earnings twice as hard
Stress performance: FCF declined 35.2% during 2023 banking crisis
Recovery speed: Typically rebounds within 1 quarter from downturns

ADI demonstrates resilience through crises but faces concentration risks with nearly half of revenue from Industrial and significant China exposure. The persistent insider selling during peak performance suggests management sees limited upside from current levels.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $2.2B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 51 qtrs
260new1,782existing2,042holders+126 net1,908staying134exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 88.2% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Analog Devices, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,920
$1,080 lost. Recovery: 36 days.

At 49.92x sales and 45.73x earnings, ADI commands its highest valuation multiple in history while insiders liquidate $54M in shares.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 45.73x — 70th percentile over 10 years
EV/Sales: 49.92x — 98th percentile, highest in company history
Earnings yield: 0.55% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.78% spread
DCF assessment: Price at $318 is 27.3% above $250 fair value
Market implied growth: 5.51% perpetual versus 25.9% trailing performance

The market prices ADI for sustained excellence with valuations at historical extremes, yet implies only modest 5.51% long-term growth. This disconnect between premium multiples and conservative growth assumptions suggests the market recognizes cyclical risks even while paying for perfection.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$250
27% premium
MARKET PRICE
$318
Price implies 5.5% growth · Trailing: 25.9%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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