ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.
IndustrialsIndustrial - Machinery
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

At $315.53, Roper generates $2.49B free cash flow with zero stock dilution — yet trades at its lowest valuation in a decade.

Buffett framework
Bullish

At 66x EBITDA, Roper's valuation eliminates any margin of safety despite generating $2.49B in free cash flow.

Graham framework
Neutral
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Software revenue: $12.26B in 2025 — 100% of business is now pure software
Recurring revenue growth: 6% in Q4'25 with mission-critical vertical market focus
EBITDA margins: 40.2% in Q3'25 across diversified software portfolio
M&A deployment: $3.3B in acquisitions during 2025
Geographic mix: 87% United States, 13% international revenue

Roper has transformed into a pure-play vertical software company, shedding all industrial assets to focus on high-margin, recurring revenue businesses. The company uses acquisitions to enter new verticals where its software becomes embedded in critical workflows, creating switching costs that support 40%+ margins.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett's framework spots $2.49 billion in free cash flow trading at decade-low valuations while Graham sees 66x EBITDA as unjustifiable at any price — when legends disagree this sharply, someone's very wrong about Roper. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and see which perspective resonates with your investment philosophy.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $2.49B TTM with 32% FCF margins
Stock compensation: 0% of revenue in Q4'25 — zero dilution
Capital allocation: $3.3B to acquisitions, $500M to buybacks in 2025
Share repurchase authorization: $3B announced in Q3'25 — first ever
Cash conversion: 53.6 days cycle in Q4'25 with minimal working capital needs

Roper converts nearly one-third of revenue to free cash flow without diluting shareholders — a rare combination in software. The introduction of a $3B buyback authorization alongside continued M&A shows management sees their stock as another attractive acquisition target.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 12.3% TTM with Q4'25 at record $2.06B
Operating cash flow recovery: From -$64.2M in Q2'22 to +$738M in Q4'25
Core margin expansion: 60 basis points improvement in Q4'25
ROIC vs WACC: Maintaining value creation despite higher rates
Operating leverage: 0.31 coefficient shows flexible cost structure

Roper completed a dramatic operational turnaround, swinging from negative cash flow to record levels in 11 quarters while expanding margins. The low operating leverage provides downside protection, while 12%+ growth rates demonstrate the business is accelerating, not maturing.

Owner Earnings vs Reported EPS
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Concentration risk: 100% software exposure with Herfindahl index of 10,000
Drawdown severity: -46.9% from $593.81 peak to $315.53 current
Rate shock resilience: Only 18% FCF decline in 2022 despite 43bp margin compression
Insider conviction: Net buying of 75,761 shares during 47% drawdown
Institutional ownership: 92.7% leaves limited float for volatility

While Roper proved resilient through rate shocks and COVID with rapid recoveries, the current 47% drawdown is unprecedented and ongoing. Complete software concentration eliminates industrial diversification, but management's aggressive buying during the decline signals confidence in the business model.

INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Windacre Partnership opened a $1.4B position
ACCUMULATING7/10 long-term · avg 46 qtrs
152new1,115existing1,267holders-31 net1,084staying183exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 92.7% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Roper Technologies, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,970
$1,030 lost. Recovery: 84 days.

Operating cash flow recovered from negative $64.2M to positive $738M in 11 quarters, yet the stock fell 46.9% — the market sees risk where the numbers show recovery.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Earnings yield: 0.90% vs 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.43% spread
Market-implied growth: 1.02% perpetual despite 12.3% trailing FCF growth
DCF valuation gap: Stock 65.6% below calculated intrinsic value
52-week position: 15.41% — near annual lows
Earnings reaction asymmetry: -3.75% average drop even on manufactured beats

The market implies Roper will grow at 1% forever — below inflation and 11 points below recent performance. This pessimistic pricing creates a 66% gap to DCF value, suggesting either the market knows something fundamental has broken or significant opportunity exists at these levels.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$1041
66% discount
MARKET PRICE
$358
Price implies 1.0% growth · Trailing: 12.3%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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