ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CPRT
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

31.3% net margins can't justify 28x earnings for 2.4% growth — insiders selling while institutions pay fast grower prices for stalwart returns.

cautiousLeaning Bearishconviction

A cash-rich stalwart with monopoly-like margins trades at fast grower prices despite 2.4% growth and insiders heading for exits.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONmisclassified

What kind of company is this and what should we expect?

TTM revenue growth of 2.4% places CPRT firmly in stalwart territory
Net margins of 31.3% in Q1'26 exceed most fast growers
Service revenue concentration at 85.4% provides recurring revenue base
Revenue declined 2.9% in Q1'26 with operating income falling 8.8%

This framework classifies CPRT as a stalwart masquerading as a fast grower. The 2.4% growth rate is classic stalwart territory, but the 31.3% margins and dominant market position give it fast grower characteristics without the growth.

Revenue
THE PEG RATIOexpensive

Are we paying a fair price for the growth we're getting?

P/E ratio of 28x with TTM revenue growth of 2.4%
PEG ratio above 11x assuming earnings growth matches revenue
Market implies 4.71% perpetual growth vs 2.4% trailing growth
Earnings yield of 0.89% versus 4.33% treasury yield

Applying this lens reveals extreme overvaluation — paying 28x earnings for 2.4% growth yields a PEG over 11x, far above Lynch's 1.0 threshold. The market prices this stalwart like a fast grower, creating significant downside risk.

P/E Ratio
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWconcerning

Are insiders buying or selling with their own money?

Net selling of 219,376 shares over last 4 quarters
Selling in 16 of last 20 quarters shows consistent pattern
Brief buying in Q4'25 followed immediately by return to selling
CEO compensation modest at $2.1 million with $900K salary

This framework sees a clear signal — insiders have been net sellers for years. Lynch taught that insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one, and CPRT insiders aren't buying despite the stock's 47.7% drawdown.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
THE GROWTH STORYmature

Can you explain in one sentence why this company grows?

Service revenue at 85.4% of total provides recurring fee income
Revenue correlates 0.987 with inflation, providing pricing power
Revenue inversely correlates -0.866 with consumer confidence
Geographic concentration at 83% US limits expansion opportunities

The growth story is simple but limited: CPRT runs online auctions for salvage vehicles with pricing power tied to inflation. However, 2.4% growth reveals this story is mature, not exciting, making the 28x P/E inexplicable through this lens.

Revenue by Segment
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a paradox: CPRT has the margins of a fast grower, the growth rate of a stalwart, and the valuation of a hot tech stock. The 31.3% net margins and dominant market position are exactly what Lynch sought, but paying 28x earnings for 2.4% growth violates his fundamental principle — the P/E should roughly equal the growth rate. With insiders consistently selling and $5.1 billion earning below treasury yields, this looks like a wonderful business at a terrible price. Would Lynch pay 11x PEG for any stock, no matter how good the business?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bearish
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