ONE LEVEL DEEPER
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
TechnologySemiconductors
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

Growing 65.5% with PEG of 0.40—classic Lynch fast grower, except insiders sold for 20 straight quarters.

Lynch framework
Bullish

At 0.95% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries, NVIDIA offers 78% less return than risk-free bonds.

Graham framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Data Center: 89.7% of FY2026 revenue ($193.7B) — AI infrastructure dominates the business
Gaming: 7.4% of revenue ($16.0B), down from historical core business
Revenue concentration: Herfindahl index of 8,108 indicates extreme segment dependency
Geographic mix: US 69.3%, Taiwan 19.6%, China 9.1% of FY2026 revenue
Growth engine: 65.5% TTM revenue growth driven entirely by Data Center demand

NVIDIA has transformed from a gaming GPU company into an AI data center monopoly. The extreme concentration in Data Center revenue creates both the growth engine and the vulnerability — one segment drives nearly 90% of the business.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett sees monopoly economics in 75% margins while Graham recoils at 0.95% earnings yield — but both note insiders have sold NVDA for 20 straight quarters. What do the sellers know that the market doesn't? Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis.

Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: 84% conversion from operating cash flow in Q1'26
Capital allocation: $3.8B buybacks vs $1.3B capex in Q1'26
R&D investment: $5.5B (8.1% of revenue) sustaining innovation leadership
Stock compensation: 2.40% of revenue in Q1'26, modest for tech sector
Net income: $43.0B in Q1'26 on $68.1B revenue (63.1% net margin)

NVIDIA generates extraordinary cash with minimal capital requirements — spending just 1.9% of revenue on capex while returning 10.5% of operating cash flow via buybacks. The business model requires brains (R&D) not buildings (capex), enabling massive cash generation.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margins: Expanded to 65.0% in Q1'26 (98th percentile)
ROIC trajectory: 1.34% in Q3'22 → 14.82% in Q3'23 → 21.45% in Q1'26
Revenue growth: Accelerated from 60.8% in Q3'25 to 65.5% TTM
Gross margins: Improved from 72.4% in Q3'25 to 75.0% in Q1'26
EPS growth: Hit $1.76 in Q1'26 (98th percentile), all-time high

Every key metric shows dramatic improvement — margins expanding, returns soaring, growth accelerating. The transformation from Q3'22's 1.34% ROIC to Q1'26's 21.45% represents one of the fastest profitability recoveries in semiconductor history.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Concentration risk: 89.7% revenue from Data Center, Herfindahl index 8,108
Insider behavior: Net selling for 20 consecutive quarters, $5.1B disposed in last 4 quarters
Rate shock resilience: FCF declined 110.6% and margins compressed 2,747 basis points in 2022
Operating leverage: 1.22 coefficient means earnings amplify revenue swings
Recovery speed: Took only 2 quarters to recover from 2022's severe downturn

The extreme Data Center concentration creates fragility — if AI infrastructure spending slows, 90% of revenue is at risk. The 2022 rate shock demonstrated this vulnerability with FCF collapsing over 100%, though the company recovered within 2 quarters.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $62.2B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 52 qtrs
634new5,497existing6,131holders+394 net5,891staying240exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 67.8% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would NVIDIA Corporation's worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,470
$1,530 lost. Recovery: 31 days.

Insiders have sold stock for 20 consecutive quarters while the company achieved its highest-ever 65.0% operating margins.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Earnings yield: 0.95% vs 4.33% treasury yield (negative 3.38% spread)
P/E ratio: 26.37x (10th percentile despite 98th percentile profitability)
Market expectations: Implies 12.34% perpetual growth vs 65.5% current growth
DCF assessment: Trading 25.2% below $233.30 fair value estimate
Analyst targets: Wide range from $140-$400, consensus $278.59

The market prices NVIDIA for significant deceleration — implied 12.34% perpetual growth is conservative against current 65.5% growth. However, the 0.95% earnings yield demands flawless execution to justify the premium over risk-free treasuries.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$233
25% discount
MARKET PRICE
$174
Price implies 12.3% growth · Trailing: 65.5%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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