ONE LEVEL DEEPER
BKRBaker Hughes Company
EnergyOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Market implies 3.15% perpetual growth for a business declining at -0.3%—a 345bp expectations gap.

Mauboussin framework
Neutral

Negative 238bp spread to treasuries while four profitability metrics hit cycle peaks simultaneously.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue split: Oilfield Services & Equipment 51.6%, Industrial & Energy Technology 48.4% in 2025
International operations: 72.2% of revenue generated outside the United States
IET backlog: Record $32.4 billion provides multi-year revenue visibility
Revenue concentration: Herfindahl index of 5005 indicates high segment focus

Baker Hughes operates as a global energy infrastructure provider with balanced exposure between oilfield services and industrial technology. The record backlog in industrial equipment suggests strong forward visibility, while heavy international exposure ties performance to global energy capital spending cycles rather than US-only dynamics.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Peter Lynch sees a stalwart trading at 12.84x earnings with -0.3% growth — exactly the valuation trap he warned against. Yet institutional ownership just exceeded 100% for the first time while insiders sold nearly 900,000 shares. Tap any framework below to explore how each legend would approach Baker Hughes today.

Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Neutral
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $2.54 billion TTM with consistent generation
Capital allocation Q4'25: Dividends 13.7% of OCF, capex 22.7%, R&D 8.8%
Share buybacks: Suspended in Q4'25 after $384 million deployed in Q1-Q2'25
Cash conversion: Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income

Strong cash generation of $2.54 billion funds a balanced allocation between growth investment (22.7% capex) and shareholder returns (13.7% dividends). The Q4'25 buyback suspension after first-half activity suggests capital preservation for the pending Chart acquisition, marking a strategic shift in deployment priorities.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

ROIC trajectory: -58.83% in Q1'20 to record 3.48% in Q4'25 (98th percentile)
Operating margin: 13.1% in Q4'25, 93rd percentile over 10 years
Revenue growth: -0.3% TTM indicates mature market conditions
Operating income: $970 million in Q4'25, highest in company history
Margin expansion: Operating margins improved 90 basis points year-over-year to 17.4% in 2025

Baker Hughes has engineered a dramatic operational recovery from pandemic lows, achieving record efficiency metrics across ROIC and operating income. While revenue remains flat, margin expansion and capital efficiency improvements demonstrate the company is extracting more profit from each dollar of sales—classic mature business optimization.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

COVID impact: Revenue fell 25.4%, FCF dropped 95%, margins compressed 630 basis points
Recovery time: Required 13 quarters to recover from pandemic shock
Insider activity: Net selling of 884,625 shares over last 12 months
Operating leverage: Low coefficient of 0.25 in Q4'25 suggests resilient cost structure
Balance sheet: Net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.5x provides financial flexibility

The COVID period proved Baker Hughes can survive severe demand shocks, though recovery takes years not quarters. Current low leverage and conservative balance sheet provide cushion, but persistent insider selling during peak profitability raises questions about management's view of sustainability.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Actiam N.v. added $2.3B
ACCUMULATING7/10 long-term · avg 25 qtrs
146new906existing1,052holders+45 net951staying101exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 101.6% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Baker Hughes Company's worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$7,470
$2,530 lost. Recovery: 105 days.

Record ROIC of 3.48% in Q4'25 proves operational excellence, but a negative 238 basis point spread to treasuries questions whether excellence is worth the price.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Earnings yield: 1.95% versus 4.33% treasury yield, negative 238 basis point spread
Market expectations: Implies 3.15% perpetual growth versus -0.3% trailing reality
Valuation metrics: Trading at 12.84x P/E and 52.86x EV/EBITDA (78th percentile)
DCF assessment: Price 11.6% below fair value of $68.33
Earnings reactions: Negative surprises trigger 66% larger drops than positive gains

Despite record operational metrics, Baker Hughes offers investors 238 basis points less yield than risk-free treasuries. The market prices in 3.15% perpetual growth—a 345 basis point gap from current performance—while asymmetric price reactions to earnings suggest investors are positioned for perfection with limited tolerance for disappointment.

Earnings Yield
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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