ONE LEVEL DEEPER
TRI
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Gross margins collapsed to 38.4% from 75.9% historical mean while the market pays 43.6x earnings for 3.4% growth.

cautiousLeaning Bearishconviction

Thomson Reuters trades at 43.6x earnings with collapsing gross margins, demanding faith where Graham would demand safety.

THE LENSES
THE MARGIN OF SAFETYinadequate

Does the price protect me from permanent loss of capital?

Stock trades at $90.19 versus DCF fair value of $175.13, a 48.5% discount
P/E ratio of 43.6x sits at 75th percentile historically, despite recent 62.3% drawdown
Market implies 4.0% perpetual growth versus 3.4% trailing revenue growth
EV/EBITDA of 76.6x at 35th percentile suggests some repricing has occurred

While the DCF suggests deep undervaluation, the framework sees danger in paying 43.6x earnings for 3.4% growth. The 62.3% drawdown from peak has not created sufficient margin of safety when earnings yield remains at 0.57%.

P/E Ratio
EARNINGS YIELD VS BONDSdangerous

Do stocks offer a meaningful premium over bonds to justify equity risk?

Earnings yield of 0.57% versus 4.33% treasury yield, a negative 3.76% spread
At 3.4% revenue growth, would take 15+ years for earnings yield to match current treasuries
Market pricing requires 4.0% perpetual growth to justify current multiples

This framework sees no rational basis for accepting 0.57% earnings yield when risk-free treasuries offer 4.33%. The growth rate of 3.4% cannot close this chasm within any reasonable timeframe.

Earnings Yield
THE EARNINGS RECORDmixed

Has the company demonstrated earnings over 7-10 years?

94.9% positive earnings surprises over 39 quarters suggests consistent execution
26% of beats were manufactured, showing earnings management
Operating income grew from $441M to $548M year-over-year in Q4'25
Free cash flow of $2.04B demonstrates strong cash generation

The earnings record shows consistency with concerning quality issues. While the company reliably generates cash, the prevalence of manufactured beats undermines confidence in reported numbers.

Net Income
THE PRICE YOU PAYexcessive

What do you receive in earnings, assets, and dividends per dollar of price paid?

P/E of 43.6x for a business growing revenue at 3.4%
EV/EBITDA of 76.6x despite being at only 35th historical percentile
Gross margins collapsed to 38.4%, 3.96 standard deviations below 75.9% mean
Dividend yield not specified but 33.8% of OCF paid as dividends in Q4'25

For each dollar invested, shareholders receive 2.3 cents of earnings from a business with deteriorating gross margins. This framework finds the price excessive relative to the fundamental deterioration evident in margins.

EV / EBITDA
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a paradox: Thomson Reuters generates substantial cash with a conservative balance sheet, yet trades at valuations that ignore fundamental margin deterioration. The 0.57% earnings yield against 4.33% treasuries represents not a margin of safety but a margin of hope. Would Graham pay 43.6x earnings for a business with gross margins collapsing 3.96 standard deviations below normal?

This analysis applies Benjamin Graham's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Benjamin Graham. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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