ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC
Consumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

At 8.42x earnings and 41.4% below intrinsic value, this predictable cash machine trades like it's going out of business.

Buffett framework
Bullish

Operating margin hits 90th percentile at 13.4% while valuation sinks to 28th percentile — peak performance meets maximum pessimism.

Marks framework
Bullish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Bottling: Distributes Coca-Cola products across Europe (73.7% of revenue) and Asia-Pacific (26.3%)
Revenue: 16% TTM growth demonstrates pricing power with 0.973 correlation to inflation
Margins: Operating margin at 13.4% in Q4'25 hits 90th percentile over 10 years
Classification: Lynch categorizes as 'stalwart' — mature, steady grower with consistent dividends

CCEP operates a geographically concentrated bottling business with exceptional pricing power tied to inflation. The company has pushed operating efficiency to decade-high levels while maintaining predictable cash flows, though heavy European exposure creates both stability and concentration risk.

Operating Margin
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett's framework spots a 41.4% discount in a Coca-Cola bottler hitting record margins — but when all five legends agree this strongly, what is everyone missing? Tap any framework below to explore their full analysis and discover what drives their remarkable 0.70-0.75 position convergence.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Cash generation: €1.51B free cash flow in Q4'25 from €1.93B operating cash flow
Shareholder returns: 83.6% of OCF returned — 53.7% via buybacks, 29.9% via dividends
Capital spending: 22.0% of OCF allocated to capex for capacity and cooler investments
Stock compensation: Minimal at 0.20% of revenue in Q2'25
Cash cycle: Working capital efficiency with 4.08-day cash conversion cycle in Q4'25

CCEP functions as a cash distribution machine, converting predictable operating cash flows into aggressive shareholder returns. The 83.6% payout ratio reflects a mature business with limited reinvestment needs, prioritizing capital return over growth investments.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue momentum: 16% TTM growth with Q4'25 showing 3.4% quarterly increase
Margin expansion: Operating margin at 13.4% (90th percentile) while gross margin at 35.8% (20th percentile)
Earnings quality: Low accruals ratio of 0.031 with improving OCF vs net income divergence
Operating leverage: 1.38x coefficient — 47.7% operating income growth on 3.4% revenue growth in Q4'25

The business demonstrates operational strengthening with margins at decade highs and strong cash conversion, though the disconnect between operating and gross margins suggests cost pressures persist. High operating leverage amplifies both revenue gains and potential volume declines.

Free Cash Flow
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Stress test: COVID Q2'20 caused 97.2% FCF collapse and 769bp margin decline, recovered in 3 quarters
Geographic risk: 73.7% revenue concentration in Europe creates single-market exposure
Earnings asymmetry: Double misses trigger -4.76% declines vs -0.11% for double beats — 4.1x downside sensitivity
Institutional exodus: Ownership declined from 33.7% to 32.4% despite record margins
Balance sheet: No debt metrics provided in dataset

CCEP proved resilient through COVID's extreme stress but faces ongoing concentration risks and a market positioned for perfection. The 4-to-1 downside sensitivity to earnings misses combined with institutional distribution suggests heightened fragility despite strong fundamentals.

INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $363M position
DISTRIBUTING8/10 long-term · avg 31 qtrs
96new477existing573holders+39 net516staying57exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 32.4% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC's worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$6,800
$3,200 lost. Recovery: 463 days.

Operating margins at 13.4% hit the 90th percentile while the P/E at 8.42x sits at the 28th percentile — operational excellence meeting maximum market pessimism.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Valuation disconnect: P/E of 8.42x at 28th percentile while earnings yield of 2.97% at 80th percentile
DCF gap: Current price of $92.48 trades 41.4% below calculated fair value of $157.92
Market expectations: Reverse DCF implies -4.63% perpetual decline despite 16% trailing FCF growth
Risk premium: Negative spread with 2.97% earnings yield vs 4.33% treasury yield
Analyst view: Consensus $113 target with low dispersion ($110-118 range)

The market prices CCEP for permanent value destruction, creating an extreme disconnect between operational excellence and valuation. Trading below both intrinsic value and risk-free rates while generating record margins suggests maximum pessimism has been priced in.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$158
41% discount
MARKET PRICE
$92
Price implies -4.6% growth · Trailing: 16.0%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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