ONE LEVEL DEEPER
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Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

25.2% revenue growth marks a fast grower, but 14 straight quarters of insider selling says the growth story is ending.

cautiousLeaning Bearishconviction

Seagate transformed from losses to record margins in three years, but insiders selling for 14 straight quarters suggests they know this fast grower's best days are numbered.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONexplosive

What kind of company is this and what should we expect?

TTM revenue growth of 25.2% puts Seagate firmly in fast grower territory
Operating margin exploded from -16.9% in Q1'23 to 29.9% in Q1'26
Revenue concentrated 80% in data center markets with HAMR technology leadership
Three-year recovery from losses to record profitability complete

This framework classifies Seagate as a fast grower — Lynch's favorite hunting ground for 10-baggers. The 25.2% revenue growth combined with margin expansion from losses to 29.9% shows explosive operational leverage typical of fast growers hitting their stride.

Revenue
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWalarming

Are insiders buying their own stock with conviction?

Net selling for 14 consecutive quarters through Q2'26
Insiders sold in 70% of quarters over the past 5 years
Net buying of only 57,934 shares over 4 quarters (~$5M estimate)
CEO received $11.4M-$17.2M compensation with options but no stock awards

Lynch's key insight: insiders buy for only one reason — they think the price will rise. The 14-quarter selling streak during Seagate's greatest operational transformation tells us management doesn't believe in the sustainability of current performance.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
THE PEG RATIOstretched

Are we paying a reasonable price for the growth we're getting?

P/E ratio of 26.1 with TTM earnings growth producing PEG around 1.0
Stock trades at 93rd percentile of 10-year P/E range
Reverse DCF implies 9.2% perpetual growth vs 25.2% current growth
EV/EBITDA at 77.1x sits in 85th percentile despite record EBITDA

The PEG appears reasonable at first glance, but the market is pricing in dramatic deceleration from 25.2% to 9.2% growth. With multiples at decade-high percentiles, this framework sees a fast grower priced for perfection with no margin of safety.

P/E Ratio
WHERE IN THE STORYmature

Are we early, middle, or late in the growth story?

Six profitability metrics simultaneously at 95th+ percentiles in Q1'26
Gross margins expanded 2,440 basis points from Q1'23 trough
ROIC exceeded WACC for the first time in company history
Institutional ownership declining from 91.2% to 87.8% as smart money exits

This framework sees late innings — profitability metrics can't get much better, and institutional distribution has begun. When six metrics hit extremes simultaneously after a three-year recovery, the easy gains are behind us.

Operating Margin
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a classic late-stage fast grower: explosive recent performance, insiders heading for exits, and a market pricing in deceleration. Lynch made his fortune finding fast growers early, not after they've delivered a 4,660 basis point margin improvement and hit every profitability record. The 14-quarter insider selling streak during peak performance is the tell — management knows this level isn't sustainable. Would Lynch rather own a fast grower at the beginning of its record quarter streak or after it?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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