ONE LEVEL DEEPER
INTUIntuit Inc.
TechnologySoftware - Application
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

Market prices 3.89% growth for INTU delivering 19.7% — the widest expectations gap in a decade.

Mauboussin framework
Bullish

INTU grows revenue 19.7% but insiders dumped $258M — Lynch says when management abandons a fast grower, so should you.

Lynch framework
Neutral
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Global Business Solutions: 58.8% of revenue from QuickBooks ecosystem serving small businesses
Consumer Group: 41.2% of revenue from TurboTax and Credit Karma financial services
Platform scale: Approaching 100 million users across all products
Revenue growth: 19.7% YoY in Q1'26, accelerating from 17.2% TTM
AI transition: Evolving from software tools to done-for-you financial experiences

Intuit operates a two-engine growth machine where QuickBooks dominates small business accounting and TurboTax owns consumer tax prep, creating mission-critical touchpoints at the heart of financial workflows. The 19.7% growth acceleration suggests the AI platform pivot is gaining traction, transforming static software into dynamic financial assistants.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Mauboussin sees INTU's 46% crash pricing in just 3.89% growth for a 19.7% grower, while Lynch warns that insiders dumping $258M during record profits know something the numbers don't show. When legends split this sharply, which signal matters more? Tap any framework below to explore their full analysis and discover where they see opportunity or danger.

Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Operating cash flow: $1.57B in Q1'26 with 18.4% operating margins
Share buybacks: $933M (59.4% of OCF) returned to shareholders
Dividends: $341M (21.7% of OCF) in quarterly payments
R&D investment: $836M (53.2% of OCF) fueling platform development
Stock compensation: 11.2% of revenue in Q1'26, diluting shareholder returns

Intuit's capital allocation reveals a mature cash generator returning 81.1% of operating cash to shareholders while maintaining aggressive R&D spending. The 11.2% stock compensation burden means reported margins overstate true shareholder economics — employees capture a meaningful slice of the value creation.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin expansion: 14.9% (Q1'25) to 18.4% (Q1'26)
Revenue acceleration: 17.2% TTM growth jumping to 19.7% in Q1'26
ROIC recovery: First positive spread over WACC since Q2'22
Seasonal concentration: Q2 delivers 38.9% of annual earnings due to tax season

Every key metric points upward — margins expanding, growth accelerating, and returns exceeding cost of capital for the first time in years. The business has never been operationally stronger, making the 46.4% stock decline a stark contradiction to fundamental momentum.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Concentration risk: 58.8% of revenue from Global Business Solutions segment
Insider exodus: $258M in net sales over 12 months, selling in 14 of 20 quarters
Historical resilience: Survived -49.1% drawdown during 2022 rate shock
Operating leverage: 0.93 coefficient means earnings volatility matches revenue swings
Current drawdown: -46.4% from July 2025 peak, the worst in company history

Management's aggressive selling during record performance raises questions about what insiders see that public metrics miss. While the company survived prior 40%+ drawdowns, this marks the first time such a decline coincided with accelerating fundamentals rather than operational stress.

Insider Sentiment (MSPR)
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $3.1B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 52 qtrs
244new2,078existing2,322holders+46 net2,124staying198exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 85.0% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Intuit Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$5,090
$4,910 lost. Recovery: 742 days.

INTU trades at 50.2x earnings after falling 46.4% — a premium valuation at a discount price.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Current P/E: 50.2x, sitting at 45th percentile of 10-year range
Earnings yield: 0.5% versus 4.33% treasury yields creates -3.8% spread
Market expectations: Implied 3.89% perpetual growth versus 19.7% actual
DCF assessment: $432 price trades 20.5% above $359 fair value
52-week position: 16.4% from bottom after 46.4% decline from peak

The market's violent repricing suggests investors now demand a massive risk premium for a business generating record results. At 3.89% implied growth versus 19.7% actual, expectations have collapsed so far that even modest execution could drive substantial upside — if the insider selling doesn't signal deeper problems ahead.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$359
20% premium
MARKET PRICE
$432
Price implies 3.9% growth · Trailing: 17.2%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

EDUCATIONAL ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICEv2