ONE LEVEL DEEPER
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.
TechnologySoftware - Infrastructure
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Operating margins exploded from 1.3% to 40.9% while insiders sold $1.0B — excellence priced for perfection.

Buffett framework
Neutral

Trading 1396% above intrinsic value with 0.14% earnings yield, the margin of safety is negative.

Graham framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Government segment: 53.7% of FY2025 revenue at $2.4B — mission-critical analytics
Commercial segment: 46.3% of revenue at $2.1B — enterprise AI platforms
Software model: 1.7% capex as percentage of operating cash flow in Q4'25
Revenue growth: 56.2% TTM qualifying as fast grower classification
Gross margin: 84.6% in Q4'25 — pure software economics

Palantir runs a capital-light software business split between stable government contracts and rapidly growing commercial AI deployments. The 84.6% gross margins and minimal capex requirements create inherent operating leverage as revenue scales.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Graham sees a stock trading 1396% above intrinsic value while Buffett admires margins exploding to 40.9% — but why are insiders dumping $1.0 billion if this transformation is real? Tap any framework to see their complete analysis.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Neutral
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $764M in Q4'25, up 67% from $457M in Q4'24
R&D allocation: 18.5% of operating cash flow in Q4'25, down from 84.9% in Q1'24
Stock compensation: 13.96% of Q4'25 revenue — dilution as a cost structure
Buybacks: $139M TTM, just 2.5% of operating cash flow
Cash position: $1.4B with positive free cash flow generation

The business has transformed from cash-burning R&D project to cash-generating machine, with FCF surging 67% year-over-year. Capital allocation remains conservative with minimal buybacks while stock-based compensation continues as the primary employee cost structure.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin: 40.9% in Q4'25, up from 1.3% in Q4'24
ROIC: 7.25% in Q4'25 — first positive ROIC-WACC spread in company history
Operating leverage: 2.4x — operating income growing 2.4x faster than revenue
Revenue trajectory: 56.2% TTM growth maintaining fast grower status
Margin expansion: From 1.9% trough in Q2'23 to 40.9% in 18 months

Every key metric points to accelerating business strength. The 39.6 percentage point margin expansion in one year combined with 2.4x operating leverage demonstrates the scalability kicking in as the business matures beyond its investment phase.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Insider selling: 20 consecutive quarters with $1.0B in net sales over TTM
Revenue concentration: 53.7% from government segment, Herfindahl index of 5028
Operating leverage: 2.4x coefficient cuts both ways if growth slows
Stress history: Survived -67.2% drawdown in 2022 rate shock with margins intact
Geographic risk: 62.9% international revenue exposure

The unbroken 20-quarter insider selling streak while margins explode raises questions about what management sees ahead. High operating leverage that drove margins from 1.3% to 40.9% would work in reverse during any revenue deceleration.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $5.1B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 18 qtrs
417new2,800existing3,217holders+189 net2,989staying228exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 55.8% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Palantir Technologies Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$7,230
$2,770 lost. Recovery: 46 days.

Twenty consecutive quarters of insider selling totaling $1.0B while operating margins exploded from 1.3% to 40.9% — the builders are cashing out at the peak.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 174.26x with 0.14% earnings yield vs 4.33% treasury yield
DCF premium: Trading 1396% above $9.92 fair value estimate
Implied growth: Reverse DCF requires 11.17% perpetual growth to justify price
Analyst range: $180-$230 targets with $199 median from 26 analysts
Earnings reactions: 7.75% average gain on beats suggests high bar already set

The market prices in extraordinary expectations with earnings yield 4.19 percentage points below risk-free rates. At 174x earnings despite record profitability, the valuation assumes the 56.2% growth trajectory continues for years while margins remain at peak levels.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$10
1396% premium
MARKET PRICE
$148
Price implies 11.2% growth · Trailing: 56.2%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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