ONE LEVEL DEEPER
AVGO
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

At 53x earnings yielding 0.47% versus 4.33% treasuries, Broadcom asks investors to accept 9x less yield for equity risk.

cautiousLeaning Bearishconviction

This framework sees a business earning $8 billion quarterly that trades at 53x those earnings — Mr. Market's euphoria overwhelming arithmetic reality.

THE LENSES
THE PRICE YOU PAYexcessive

What do you receive in earnings, assets, and dividends per dollar of price paid?

P/E ratio of 53.4x sits at 83rd percentile of 10-year range
EV/EBITDA of 149.68x at 90th percentile historically
Paying $213 for each dollar of quarterly free cash flow ($8.0B FCF / $1.7T market cap)
P/E expanded from mid-30s to 53.4x despite earnings growing 61.4% YoY

This framework finds extreme premium pricing across every metric. At 53x earnings and 150x EBITDA, the price demands heroic assumptions about future growth that current 25.2% rates cannot sustain indefinitely.

P/E Ratio
EARNINGS YIELD VS BONDSinverted

Does the stock offer a meaningful premium over bonds to justify equity risk?

Earnings yield of 0.47% versus treasury yield of 4.33%
Investors accept 9x less yield from Broadcom equity than risk-free bonds
Earnings yield sits at 25th percentile of 10-year range
Market expects 25.2% growth to eventually overcome -3.86% spread

Applying this lens reveals stark mispricing — bonds yield 8x more per dollar invested. Even assuming growth closes this gap, the framework sees no compensation for equity risk at current prices.

Earnings Yield
THE MARGIN OF SAFETYabsent

Does the price protect me from permanent loss of capital?

Stock trades 25.9% above DCF fair value estimate
Reverse DCF implies 7.66% perpetual growth versus 25.2% trailing
FCF yield of 0.51% sits at 5th percentile of 10-year range
Current price assumes no margin compression from 44.95% operating margins

This framework finds no margin of safety — the price exceeds intrinsic value by a quarter. Any disappointment in growth or margins creates immediate downside with no cushion.

EV / EBITDA
THE EARNINGS RECORDexceptional

Has the company demonstrated consistent earnings over 7-10 years?

34 of 39 quarters with earnings beats — 87% consistency
Operating margin expanded from 17.4% to 44.95% over 8 quarters
Revenue grew from $11.96B to $19.30B quarterly over 2 years
One anomaly: Q3'24 showed -$0.40 EPS due to tax impacts despite positive operations

The framework recognizes exceptional earnings consistency with near-perfect execution. The single negative quarter from tax impacts rather than operations demonstrates the underlying earnings power remains intact.

Earnings Per Share
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying the Graham framework to Broadcom reveals a paradox: exceptional business fundamentals trading at prices that offer no protection. The company generates $8 billion quarterly in free cash with 45% operating margins, yet trades at 53x earnings when bonds yield 4.33%. This framework values survival over stories — at these prices, even flawless execution cannot protect capital. Would Graham pay 213x quarterly cash flow for any business, regardless of quality?

This analysis applies Benjamin Graham's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Benjamin Graham. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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