ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ROP
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

At $315.53, Roper generates $2.49B free cash flow with zero stock dilution — yet trades at its lowest valuation in a decade.

cautiousBullishconviction

A company generating $2.49 billion in free cash flow with zero stock dilution and insiders buying, yet the market prices it like a business in terminal decline.

THE LENSES
OWNER EARNINGSexceptional

How much cash would an owner actually pocket from this business?

Free cash flow of $2.49B exceeds reported earnings, with 32% FCF margins in Q4'25
Stock-based compensation dropped to 0% of revenue in Q4'25, down from 3.8% historical peak
Operating cash flow recovered from negative $64.2M in Q2'22 to positive $738M in Q4'25
Free cash flow grew 12.3% year-over-year despite market pricing 1.02% perpetual growth

This framework sees exceptional cash generation — the business converts nearly every dollar of earnings into spendable cash with zero equity dilution. The complete elimination of stock compensation while maintaining record revenue shows management treating shareholders as true partners, not ATMs.

Owner Earnings vs Reported EPS
THE MOATfortress

What protects this castle from competitive siege?

EBITDA margins of 40.2% in Q3'25, sustained above 40% across software segments
Core margins improved 60 basis points in Q4'25 while maintaining pricing power
100% of revenue from software with high recurring characteristics and 6% growth
Revenue shows 0.893 correlation with inflation, demonstrating pricing power

Applying this lens reveals a fortress built on switching costs — mission-critical software deeply embedded in customer workflows. The 40%+ margins sustained through economic cycles and positive inflation correlation prove customers cannot easily leave.

Gross Margin
MANAGEMENT AS STEWARDSaligned

Are the people running this company owners or hired hands?

Insiders net bought 75,761 shares over 12 months while stock fell 46.9%
Deployed $3.3B in disciplined M&A during 2025 toward vertical software
Authorized first-ever $3B buyback program, executed $500M in Q4'25
Recent Q1'26 showed 124,844 shares acquired vs 19,227 disposed

Management is buying the drawdown with both corporate and personal capital — a $27 million estimated insider investment during the worst decline in company history. The framework sees stewards who think like owners, not employees watching the clock.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
THE OWNER'S MATHundervalued

If you bought the whole company today, would the earnings justify the price?

Trading at 27.85x earnings with 0.90% earnings yield vs 4.33% treasury yield
Price 65.6% below DCF valuation, market implying only 1.02% perpetual growth
P/E at 18th percentile of 10-year range despite record fundamentals
Free cash flow yield at 88th percentile while price at 15.41% of 52-week range

This framework suggests the market has overcorrected — pricing 12.3% FCF growth like 1% terminal decline. At the 18th percentile of its own valuation range with cash generation near historic highs, the math works for a patient owner.

Earnings Yield
THE REINVESTMENT TESTdisciplined

Can this company deploy capital at high returns?

Return on invested capital above weighted average cost of capital consistently
$3.3B deployed in acquisitions during 2025 toward high-margin software
Operating leverage of 0.31 shows disciplined growth without excessive fixed costs
First $3B buyback authorization suggests confidence in reinvestment returns

Applying this lens reveals a capital allocation machine — deploying billions into software acquisitions while maintaining returns above cost of capital. The low operating leverage provides flexibility to pursue the best opportunities without being locked into high fixed costs.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

This framework suggests a mispriced compounder — exceptional cash generation, aligned management buying the dip, and a moat protecting 40% margins, all trading at recession valuations. The market prices Roper like a melting ice cube when the data shows a cash-gushing machine with pricing power. Is Wall Street fighting the last war while insiders and Windacre Partnership quietly accumulate?

This analysis applies Warren Buffett's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Warren Buffett. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
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