ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalAuto - Parts
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

At 31.8x earnings and 0.79% yield versus 4.33% treasuries, O'Reilly offers predictable profits at an unpredictable price.

Buffett framework
Neutral

With 0.79% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries, O'Reilly investors pay a 354bp premium for optimism.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $391B TTM across automotive aftermarket parts retail
Professional customers: 10%+ growth rates for multiple quarters
Gross margins: Stable at 51.8% in Q4'25 versus 51.3% in Q4'24
Revenue correlation with inflation: 97% — near-perfect pricing power
Revenue correlation with consumer sentiment: -89% — thrives when consumers struggle

O'Reilly operates automotive parts stores serving both professional mechanics and DIY customers, with revenue showing remarkable defensive characteristics. The company's 97% correlation with inflation combined with -89% correlation with consumer sentiment reveals a business model that passes through price increases while benefiting from economic stress that drives repair over replacement.

Revenue
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Graham sees 0.79% earnings yield as investment malpractice while Buffett admires the inflation-proof moat — but why are insiders buying at the most expensive valuation in a decade? Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and discover where the legends agree and diverge on O'Reilly's investment merit.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Neutral
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $1.59 billion TTM with 0.47% yield in Q4'25
Share buybacks: $2.1 billion in 2025, consuming 79% of operating cash flow
Growth capex: $1.2 billion invested in 2025 versus $2.1 billion in buybacks
Total buyback investment: $13.1 billion at $78.78 average price, now $91.42
Stock-based compensation: 0.18% of revenue in Q4'25

O'Reilly generates steady cash flow but allocates it aggressively toward share buybacks rather than growth investments. The company returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 while the stock traded at 95th percentile valuations, prioritizing financial engineering over operational expansion.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 6.4% TTM, consistent with stalwart classification
Operating margins: 18.8% in Q4'25, expanding 34 basis points during AI rotation
ROIC: 7.9% despite negative equity from aggressive buybacks
Operating leverage: 1.45x in Q4'25 — 12.2% operating income decline on 6.2% revenue decline
Cash conversion: Deteriorating OCF vs net income divergence

The business shows mixed signals with steady revenue growth and margin expansion offset by deteriorating cash conversion quality and high operating leverage. While the company maintains positive returns on invested capital despite negative equity, the 1.45x operating leverage creates vulnerability to revenue declines.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Worst stress test: Free cash flow declined 29% during AI Rotation 2024
Recovery speed: 3 quarters to recover from 2024 stress versus 1 quarter for prior events
Insider activity: Net buying of 57,819 shares over 12 months after 16 quarters of selling
Operating leverage: 1.45x amplifies revenue declines into larger profit drops
Balance sheet: Negative $7.8 billion equity from aggressive share buybacks

O'Reilly demonstrated resilience through multiple stress events but shows increasing recovery times and higher operational sensitivity. The shift to insider buying after years of selling suggests management confidence, though the negative equity position and high operating leverage create structural vulnerabilities.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $1.1B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 47 qtrs
206new1,543existing1,749holders+37 net1,580staying169exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 83.1% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,910
$1,090 lost. Recovery: 69 days.

At 0.79% earnings yield against 4.33% treasuries, O'Reilly demands investors accept a 354 basis point penalty for the privilege of equity risk.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 31.81x in Q4'25 — 95th percentile over 10 years
Earnings yield: 0.79% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.54% spread
Free cash flow yield: 0.47% in Q4'25 — 8th percentile over 10 years
Market implied growth: 4.38% perpetual versus 6.4% trailing growth
Earnings surprise asymmetry: Misses drop stock 1.14% versus 0.47% gain on beats
DCF assessment: Price 5.8% below fair value estimate

O'Reilly trades at historically extreme valuations with earnings and cash flow yields near decade lows. The negative 3.54% spread to treasuries demands exceptional growth to justify the premium, while the asymmetric market reaction to earnings surprises reveals a stock priced for perfection with limited upside to positive news.

Earnings Yield
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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