ONE LEVEL DEEPER
MUMicron Technology, Inc.
TechnologySemiconductors
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Feb 2026

Fast grower with 85.5% revenue expansion trades at PEG of 0.10, yet insiders sold in 15 of 20 quarters.

Lynch framework
Bullish

Operating margins at 98th percentile (67.6%) after 114-point swing—Marks framework recognizes peak cycle euphoria, not sustainable excellence.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $23.86B quarterly from memory chips — DRAM (77.1%) and NAND (22.9%)
Geography: 64.5% from United States, 15.2% from Taiwan, concentrated in advanced economies
Growth: Revenue up 74.9% YoY in Q1'26, recovering from memory market collapse
Concentration: Herfindahl index of 6,465 indicates high segment concentration risk

Micron manufactures the memory that powers everything from smartphones to data centers, with three-quarters of revenue from DRAM chips. The company rides violent cycles — revenue can double or halve within quarters based on supply-demand imbalances in commodity-like memory markets.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Lynch sees a PEG of 0.10 screaming buy while Marks warns of peak cycle euphoria at 68% margins—but why are insiders selling what institutions desperately want? Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis.

Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

FCF: $17.3B quarterly in Q1'26, swinging from -$1.5B loss in Q2'23
Capex: $5.4B quarterly (22.6% of revenue) as company invests in next-gen technology
R&D: $1.25B quarterly, but down to 5.2% of revenue from 11.2% as sales exploded
Buybacks: $5.4B spent at average price of $1,086 vs current $338 — down 68.89%
SBC: Just 1.3% of revenue in Q1'26, minimal dilution compared to peers

Cash generation turned from drought to deluge as margins recovered, but management's buyback timing proved disastrous — destroying $3.7B in shareholder value. Current capital allocation focuses heavily on technology investment with capex consuming nearly a quarter of revenue.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin: 67.6% in Q1'26, up from -46.9% trough in Q2'23
ROIC: 15.68% in Q1'26, first time exceeding 11.02% cost of capital since Q3'18
Revenue growth: 85.5% TTM, accelerating from negative growth during downturn
Cash conversion: 137.2 days in Q1'26, improved from 189.8 days year prior

Every metric screams recovery — margins at record highs, capital efficiency restored after six years underwater, and working capital tightening. But these are peak cycle numbers in a notoriously volatile industry where today's record is tomorrow's distant memory.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Volatility: Operating margins swung 114 percentage points in just 7 quarters
Leverage: 2.16x operating leverage amplifies every revenue change
Insiders: Net selling in 15 of last 20 quarters, including $25M during recovery
Concentration: DRAM represents 77.1% of revenue — one product line dominates
History: Rate Shock 2022 saw revenue fall 46.9% and FCF drop 323.8%

Micron exemplifies cyclical extremes — the same operating leverage that drove margins from -47% to 68% will savage profits when memory prices turn. Management's persistent selling during the recovery suggests they understand this volatility better than euphoric markets.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $6.4B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 48 qtrs
681new2,129existing2,810holders+555 net2,684staying126exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 78.4% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Micron Technology, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$6,940
$3,060 lost. Recovery: 182 days.

ROIC finally exceeded cost of capital at 15.68% after 6 years underwater — but can memory pricing sustain this spread?

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Valuation: 8.5x P/E with 2.9% earnings yield vs 4.3% treasury yield
Expectations: 440% gap between $338 stock price and $62.51 DCF value
Growth: Market implies just 5% perpetual growth despite 85.5% current expansion
Reactions: Double beats average only +2.88% gain — high bar already priced in
Targets: Analyst range $190-$550 shows extreme uncertainty about cycle duration

The market pays 8.5x peak earnings for a cyclical business, accepting a 2.9% yield when treasuries offer 4.3% risk-free. Either investors see sustainable structural change in memory markets or they're betting the music plays a bit longer.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$63
440% premium
MARKET PRICE
$338
Price implies 5.0% growth · Trailing: 85.5%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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