ONE LEVEL DEEPER
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Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

With 18.7% revenue growth but a PEG ratio near 8.0, CoStar violates Lynch's cardinal rule of paying fair prices for growth.

cautiousNeutralconviction

This framework sees a fast grower burning cash at record rates while trading at 149x earnings — a lottery ticket, not an investment.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONconflicted

What kind of company is this, and what should we expect from it?

TTM revenue growth of 18.7% qualifies as fast grower category
Q4'25 revenue accelerated to 25.2% YoY growth from 21.7% in Q3'25
Operating margin turned negative at -8.0% TTM with Q4'25 at just 5.5%
Revenue growth extremely correlated with inflation at 0.978 coefficient

This framework classifies CoStar as a fast grower showing acceleration, which Lynch typically loves. However, the growth comes with deteriorating profitability and appears highly dependent on inflation pass-through rather than organic expansion. A fast grower destroying margins is not the 10-to-40-bagger opportunity Lynch seeks.

Revenue
THE GROWTH STORYclear

Can you explain in one sentence why this company grows?

CoStar Suite generates 61.1% of revenue with 94% renewal rates in Q4'25
Apartments.com contributes 21.6% of revenue as residential marketplace
North America concentration at 96.4% with minimal international exposure
Total addressable market spans commercial and residential real estate information

The growth story is clear: CoStar owns essential data for commercial real estate professionals who can't operate without it, evidenced by 94% renewal rates. The expansion into residential with Apartments.com and Homes.com broadens the addressable market. This framework appreciates the simplicity — 'they have data real estate professionals must have.'

Revenue by Segment
THE PEG RATIOextreme

Are we paying a fair price for the growth we're getting?

P/E ratio of 149.22 with TTM EPS growth turning positive after losses
TTM revenue growth of 18.7% against extreme P/E multiple
PEG ratio approximately 8.0 (149 P/E / 18.7% growth)
Market implies only 7.41% perpetual growth despite 18.7% trailing growth

This framework sees a PEG ratio around 8.0 — far above Lynch's preferred 1.0 or below. Even using the most generous growth assumptions, the valuation suggests paying extreme premiums for growth that the market itself expects to decelerate. Lynch would say this violates his fundamental principle of fair price for growth.

P/E Ratio
THE BALANCE SHEET TESTadequate

Can this company survive trouble?

Cash of $1.73B exceeds debt of $1.14B for negative net debt of $589M
Current ratio declined to 2.84 in Q4'25, lowest in a decade
Interest coverage ratio strong at 21.7x in Q4'25
FCF turned negative at -$150.6M in Q4'25 from record capex spending

This framework sees a fortress balance sheet with more cash than debt, providing significant flexibility. However, the cash burn rate of $150.6M quarterly raises concerns about sustainability if the capex intensity continues. The company can clearly survive trouble, but is actively choosing to consume cash at record rates.

Debt / Equity
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a fast grower that violates Lynch's core principles — the PEG ratio of 8.0 says we're paying lottery ticket prices for a business burning cash while margins collapse. The clear growth story and fortress balance sheet can't overcome paying 149x earnings when Lynch teaches that 'the P/E of any fairly priced company equals its growth rate.' The framework suggests looking elsewhere for the next 10-bagger. At what price does even the best growth story become a speculation rather than an investment?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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