ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.
Real EstateReal Estate - Services
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Market expects only 7.41% growth from an 18.7% grower, creating rare positive expectations gap at 149x earnings.

Mauboussin framework
Leaning Bullish

At 199% above intrinsic value, CoStar exemplifies the pendulum at euphoria while burning $150.6M quarterly.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $900M TTM with 18.7% growth across commercial and residential real estate platforms
CoStar Suite: 61.1% of revenue with 94% renewal rates in Q4'25
Geographic concentration: 96.4% North America with minimal international exposure
Gross margins: 73.9% in Q4'25, down from 82.0% in Q1'21
Revenue correlation with inflation: 0.978 — nearly perfect pricing power

CoStar operates two main businesses: commercial real estate information (CoStar Suite) and residential marketplaces (Apartments.com, Homes.com). The 94% renewal rates suggest strong customer retention, but the concentration in one product line and one geography creates vulnerability. The near-perfect correlation with inflation indicates pricing power but also suggests growth is more about price increases than volume expansion.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Mauboussin sees a 11-point growth expectations gap worth betting on at 149x earnings, while Buffett asks why anyone would accept 0.17% returns when treasuries pay 4.33% — and they're both looking at the same $150.6M quarterly cash burn. Tap any framework below to see their full analysis and position.

Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Operating cash flow: $162.1M in Q4'25
Capital expenditures: $312.7M in Q4'25 — 34.7% of revenue versus 7.5% two years ago
Free cash flow: -$150.6M in Q4'25, negative after record capex
Stock compensation: 0% of revenue in Q4'25 versus 3-8% historically
Cash balance: $1.73B with negative net debt of $589M

The company generated positive operating cash flow but turned deeply negative on free cash flow due to a massive infrastructure buildout. Capex intensity surged from 7.5% to 34.7% of revenue in two years, consuming all cash generation and more. The elimination of stock compensation is unusual but the strong balance sheet provides cushion during this investment phase.

FCF vs Capex
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 18.7% TTM, qualifying as fast grower
Operating margin: 5.5% in Q4'25 with TTM operating loss of $71.6M
Gross margin: 73.9% in Q4'25 — all-time low, 3.4 standard deviations below 80% mean
ROIC: 0.39% versus WACC of 8.16% — destroying value at 8% annual rate
Net income: -$14.8M loss in Q1'25, first quarterly loss in recent history

Revenue acceleration masks fundamental deterioration across all profitability metrics. Gross margins hit record lows while ROIC fell below cost of capital by nearly 8 percentage points. The business is growing revenue but destroying economic value, suggesting the growth is coming at unsustainable cost.

Gross Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Revenue concentration: 61.1% from CoStar Suite with Herfindahl index of 4188
Liquidity: Current ratio 2.84 in Q4'25 — lowest in 10 years
Operating leverage: 2.45 coefficient means earnings swing 2.45x revenue changes
Insider activity: Net buying 122,887 shares while institutions reduced ownership
Worst drawdown: -12.9% during Banking Crisis 2023 with FCF declining 39.1%

High concentration in one product creates single point of failure risk. The 2.45x operating leverage amplifies any revenue weakness into larger earnings declines. Liquidity sits at decade lows while the company burns $150M quarterly. Management's buying while institutions reduce exposure suggests divergent views on these risks.

Revenue Concentration
4,188
HERFINDAHL INDEX
high
CoStar Suite
61%
LoopNet
17%
Information services
8%
Online Marketplaces
8%
Residential
6%
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Capital International Investors added $435M
STABLE8/10 long-term · avg 47 qtrs
102new778existing880holders-55 net723staying157exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 98.3% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would CoStar Group, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,640
$1,360 lost. Recovery: 120 days.

At 149x earnings with a -$150.6M quarterly cash burn, CoStar tests whether 94% renewal rates can justify any price.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 149x earnings — 88th percentile over 10 years
Earnings yield: 0.17% versus 4.33% treasury yield, negative 4.16% spread
Price vs DCF: Trading 199% above intrinsic value of $13.36
Market implied growth: 7.41% perpetual versus 18.7% trailing — expects deceleration
Double beat reaction: -0.72% average price decline even on strong earnings beats

The stock trades at extreme valuations by every measure, with an earnings yield below 1% while risk-free treasuries pay 4.33%. The market prices 199% above fundamental value yet expects growth to decelerate from 18.7% to 7.41%. Even perfect execution disappoints at these levels — the average price reaction to double beats is negative.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$13
199% premium
MARKET PRICE
$40
Price implies 7.4% growth · Trailing: 18.7%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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