ONE LEVEL DEEPER
AMD
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

AMD grows revenue 34.3% with AI chips, but insiders sold $74M while the stock trades at 58x earnings.

cautiousLeaning Bullishconviction

A fast grower delivering 34.3% revenue growth with record margins, but insiders are heading for the exits while institutions pile in at nosebleed valuations.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONexciting

What kind of company is this, and what should we expect?

TTM revenue growth of 34.3% to $10.27B in Q4'25
EPS growth of 22.4% in Q4'25
Operating margins expanded from -1.7% in Q2'25 to 17.1% in Q4'25
Data Center segment driving growth at 48% of revenue with 25% margins

This framework classifies AMD as a textbook fast grower — the land of 10-to-40-baggers. Revenue growth above 30% with expanding margins is exactly what this framework loves to find. The Data Center dominance provides the growth engine that fast growers need.

Revenue
THE GROWTH STORYcompelling

Can you explain the growth in one sentence?

Data Center revenue grew to 48% of total from 28.6% in 2023
"They make the chips that power AI" — simple story
Geographic diversification with 67.2% international revenue
Client and Gaming segments provide 42% revenue balance

The growth story is crystal clear: AMD makes chips that enable AI computing. This framework prizes simplicity, and you can explain AMD to a child. The Data Center explosion from 29% to 48% of revenue shows the story playing out in real numbers.

Revenue by Segment
THE PEG RATIOexpensive

Are we paying a fair price for the growth?

P/E ratio of 57.98x in Q4'25
EPS growth of 22.4% yields PEG of 2.59
Earnings yield of 0.43% versus 4.33% treasury yield
Stock trades 218% above DCF fair value of $63.99

Applying this lens reveals a PEG above 2.5 — we're paying too much for the growth. This framework wants PEG below 1.0, ideally below 0.5. At nearly 58x earnings for 22% growth, the easy money has been made.

P/E Ratio
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWconcerning

Are insiders buying with their own money?

Net selling in 14 of last 20 quarters through Q1'26
Estimated $74M in insider sales over trailing year
CEO compensation heavily equity-based at $21.8M stock awards
Consistent selling pattern despite record revenue and margins

This framework's key insight: insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one. AMD shows persistent selling with zero meaningful buying during the greatest growth period in company history. When insiders won't buy at any price during record performance, that's a clear signal.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework to AMD reveals a classic fast grower that's gotten ahead of itself. The growth story is real — 34% revenue growth powered by AI chips is exactly what this framework seeks. But at 58x earnings with insiders selling throughout the rally, we're paying popularity prices for a popular stock. This framework would wait for a better entry point. The question isn't whether AMD will keep growing, but whether today's price already reflects tomorrow's growth?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
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