ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.
TechnologySoftware - Application
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

Autodesk earns $965M quarterly free cash flow with 92.7% gross margins, yet at $238 offers owners a 0.59% yield versus 4.3% treasuries.

Buffett framework
Leaning Bullish

Stock trades 88% above intrinsic value as the pendulum swings from Q4'23 crisis to euphoria at 42x earnings.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Architecture Engineering and Construction: 49.7% of revenue — nearly half the business depends on one segment
AutoCAD Family: 24.8% of revenue — the legacy product remains a quarter of the business
Manufacturing: 19.1% of revenue — diversification beyond construction remains limited
Gross margin: 92.7% in Q1'26 — at 98th percentile of 10-year range, indicating exceptional pricing power
Geographic mix: Americas 44.1%, EMEA 38.8%, Asia Pacific 17.1% — balanced global exposure

Autodesk sells design software with remarkable pricing power, evidenced by gross margins approaching 93%. While revenue concentration in architecture and construction creates dependency risk, the company's ability to extract value from customers across three continents demonstrates the mission-critical nature of its tools.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett sees fortress-like 92.7% margins yet calls the valuation 'mathematically irrational' — when the Oracle of Omaha can't reconcile quality with price at $238, neither can the market. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and discover where the legends agree and diverge on Autodesk's investment merit.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $965M in Q1'26 — up from negative $2M in Q4'23
R&D investment: 42.5% of Q1'26 operating cash flow — maintaining innovation intensity
Share buybacks: 92.6% of Q1'26 operating cash flow — aggressive capital return program
Stock-based compensation: 9.2% of revenue in Q1'26 — significant dilution offsetting buybacks
Capital intensity: 2.4% of operating cash flow — asset-light software model

The company generates prodigious cash flow that management splits between innovation and shareholder returns. However, the buyback program has destroyed value, purchasing shares at an average price of $726.69 versus the current $238, resulting in a -67.2% return on $5.8B deployed.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 17.9% TTM but decelerated to 5.6% in Q1'26
Operating margin: 27.1% in Q1'26 — at 98th percentile of 10-year range
Operating leverage: 2.0x in Q1'26 — operating income grew 11.8% on 5.6% revenue growth
Cash conversion cycle: -201.3 days in Q1'26 — customers pay before company spends

The business shows mixed signals: margins and cash generation reach historic highs while revenue growth decelerates sharply. The 2.0x operating leverage amplifies both the benefit of any revenue acceleration and the pain of further slowdown.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Revenue concentration: 49.7% from Architecture Engineering and Construction — Herfindahl index of 3478
Banking crisis Q4'23: Free cash flow collapsed to -$2M, operating margin fell to 23.5%
Insider activity: Net selling of 21,857 shares over last 4 quarters — approximately $5.2M
Operating leverage: 2.0x coefficient means revenue declines hit earnings twice as hard
Recovery speed: FCF bounced from -$2M to $965M in 8 quarters — proven resilience

Concentration in construction software creates vulnerability to sector-specific downturns, as the Q4'23 banking crisis demonstrated. While the company recovered quickly, the high operating leverage and insider selling pattern suggest management sees limited upside at current valuations.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Fmr added $480M
ACCUMULATING9/10 long-term · avg 56 qtrs
174new1,302existing1,476holders+25 net1,327staying149exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 89.2% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Autodesk, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,980
$1,020 lost. Recovery: 66 days.

Free cash flow recovered from -$2M to $965M in eight quarters, yet at 0.59% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries, operational excellence meets valuation extremes.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 42.41x — at 35th percentile of 10-year range despite record margins
Earnings yield: 0.59% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.74% spread
Price vs DCF: $238 trades 88.3% above $126.46 intrinsic value estimate
Implied growth: Market pricing assumes 5.38% perpetual growth rate
Earnings reactions: Double beats generate only 1.6% gains while manufactured beats trigger -11.52% declines

The market prices Autodesk for sustained excellence, demanding 5.38% perpetual growth to justify a valuation offering negative real returns versus treasuries. The asymmetric earnings reactions reveal a market positioned for perfection, where meeting high expectations brings minimal reward but disappointment triggers severe punishment.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$126
88% premium
MARKET PRICE
$238
Price implies 5.4% growth · Trailing: 17.9%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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