ONE LEVEL DEEPER
TXN
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

13% revenue growth fetches 33.9x earnings while ROIC collapses 62% — a stalwart wearing growth stock pricing.

cautiousNeutralconviction

This framework sees a stalwart priced as a fast grower while capital efficiency deteriorates — the story everyone knows is not the story that matters.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONpredictable

Is this a fast grower, stalwart, slow grower, cyclical, turnaround, or asset play?

TTM revenue growth of 13% puts TXN in stalwart territory
Revenue grew from $15.8B to $17.7B over trailing twelve months
Operating margins of 33% in Q4'25 show mature, profitable business
Analog semiconductors at 84% of revenue serving industrial/automotive markets

This framework classifies TXN as a classic stalwart — steady 13% growth with consistent profitability in mature semiconductor markets. Not the 20%+ growth that creates ten-baggers, but reliable enough to weather downturns.

Revenue
THE PEG RATIOexpensive

Are we paying more for the growth than the growth is worth?

P/E ratio of 33.9x at 80th percentile historically
Trailing revenue growth of 13% gives PEG ratio of 2.6
Earnings yield of 0.74% versus 4.33% treasury yield
Market pricing 6.64% perpetual growth versus 13% trailing rate

At a PEG of 2.6, the market asks investors to pay $2.60 for every dollar of growth — well above the 1.0 threshold this framework considers fair. The premium pricing suggests the easy money has already been made.

P/E Ratio
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWbullish

Are the people running the company buying or selling?

Insiders net purchased $102M worth over 12 months
Q1'26 saw largest buying with 542,240 shares acquired
Shift from net selling in 13 of prior 20 quarters to aggressive buying
CEO Haviv Ilan compensated $22.7M with $18M in equity awards

This framework sees the $102M of insider buying as the strongest signal here — management is betting real money against the market's valuation concerns. When multiple insiders buy despite a 0.74% earnings yield, they see something coming.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
WHERE IN THE STORYmaturing

Are we in the early, middle, or late innings of the growth story?

ROIC declined 62% from 10.3% peak to 3.9% in Q4'25
Revenue growth steady at 13% but capital efficiency deteriorating
Debt-to-equity at 98th percentile (94.6%) as capex cycle completes
Market expects 6.64% growth going forward, half the trailing rate

This framework sees late innings — the easy growth is behind us as returns on capital collapse despite steady revenue gains. When a company needs more capital to generate less return, the story is maturing.

Free Cash Flow
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

This framework sees a well-run stalwart masquerading as a growth stock — 13% revenue growth commanding a 33.9x P/E ratio while returns on capital plummet to 3.9%. The $102M of insider buying suggests management believes the capital efficiency will recover, but at 2.6x PEG, investors are paying growth stock prices for stalwart returns. Is betting with insiders worth paying $2.60 for every dollar of growth?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Neutral
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bearish
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