ONE LEVEL DEEPER
NVDA
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Growing 65.5% with PEG of 0.40—classic Lynch fast grower, except insiders sold for 20 straight quarters.

cautiousBullishconviction

A rare fast grower at 65.5% with a simple story—they make the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush—but insiders have been selling for 20 straight quarters.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONexplosive

Which of Lynch's six categories fits this company?

TTM revenue growth of 65.5% with Q1'26 YoY growth at 19.5%
Data Center segment drives 89.7% of revenue at $193.7B
Operating margins expanded to 65.0% in Q1'26 from compressed levels
Net income reached $43.0B quarterly, up from losses during rate shock

This framework sees a textbook fast grower—revenue expanding at 65.5% with improving margins. The AI data center boom has transformed NVIDIA from cyclical semiconductor company to the dominant infrastructure provider, exactly the type of transformational growth Lynch sought.

Revenue
THE GROWTH STORYcrystalline

Can you explain why it's going up in one sentence?

Data Center revenue represents 89.7% of total at $193.7B
Gaming declined to just 7.4% of revenue from historical dominance
Geographic revenue shows US at 69.3%, Taiwan 19.6%, China 9.1%
Operating income margin hit 65.0% in Q1'26

The story is beautifully simple: NVIDIA makes the chips that power AI, and everyone building AI needs their chips. This framework loves clarity, and "we sell the only shovels in the AI gold rush" is as clear as stories get.

Revenue by Segment
THE PEG RATIOattractive

Is the P/E ratio justified by the growth rate?

P/E ratio at 26.37x (10th percentile historically)
EPS growth from negative to $1.76 in Q1'26
TTM revenue growth at 65.5%
PEG ratio approximately 0.40 (26.37 P/E / 65.5% growth)

Applying this lens reveals a PEG around 0.40—well below Lynch's 1.0 threshold. The framework suggests this is exactly the situation Lynch hunted for: genuine fast growth at a reasonable multiple, though sustainability of 65% growth is the key question.

P/E Ratio
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWalarming

Are insiders buying with their own money?

Net selling for 20 consecutive quarters from Q2'21 through Q1'26
Only 2 quarters showed net buying out of last 20
Estimated $5.1B in insider disposals over last 4 quarters
Heavy selling of 53.5M shares in Q4'25 alone

This lens flashes bright red—insiders have sold consistently for five years through the greatest profit boom in company history. Lynch taught that insider buying is signal while selling is noise, but 20 straight quarters of selling during record profits transcends routine diversification.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a paradox: NVIDIA exhibits everything Lynch loved—65.5% growth, simple story, reasonable PEG at 0.40, fortress balance sheet—yet insiders have sold for 20 straight quarters. The framework suggests either insiders see something the numbers don't show, or they're making the expensive mistake of selling a fast grower too early. Which interpretation would prove more costly?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bearish
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