ONE LEVEL DEEPER
NFLX
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Fast grower at 15.9% revenue growth trades at 2.6x PEG while insiders dump 1.9 million shares into peak margins.

cautiousNeutralconviction

Applying this lens, Netflix shows classic fast grower traits with 15.9% revenue growth and expanding margins, but institutional saturation and insider selling suggest the easy gains are behind it.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONmaturing

What type of company is this, and what should we expect?

TTM revenue growth of 15.9% with EPS growth exceeding 20%
Operating margins expanded 760 basis points from 16.9% in Q4'23 to 24.5% in Q4'25
Free cash flow grew to $9.5 billion TTM from negative territory in 2019
Revenue shows 0% GDP correlation, indicating recession-resistant demand

This framework classifies Netflix as a fast grower transitioning toward stalwart status — still growing at 15.9% but no longer the 30%+ rocket of earlier years. The margin expansion and cash generation show excellent execution, yet the growth rate sits at the lower boundary of fast grower territory.

Revenue
THE GROWTH STORYclear

Can you explain why this company grows in one sentence?

100% of revenue from streaming subscriptions across global markets
Geographic diversification: US/Canada 44.2%, EMEA 32.1%, Latin America 11.9%, Asia Pacific 11.8%
Revenue-inflation correlation of 95.7% demonstrates pricing power
Approaching 1 billion global viewers with content cost leverage

The growth story is crystal clear: Netflix sells streaming subscriptions globally and grows by adding subscribers and raising prices. This framework values such simplicity — no complex divisions, no confusing strategy, just more subscribers paying more money.

Revenue by Geography
THE PEG RATIOexpensive

Are we paying a fair price for the growth we're getting?

P/E ratio of 40.99x with TTM revenue growth of 15.9%
PEG ratio approximately 2.6 (40.99 / 15.9)
Earnings yield of 0.61% versus 4.33% Treasury yield
Market implies 9.23% FCF growth versus 15.9% trailing growth

Applying this framework's PEG lens shows Netflix trading at a significant premium — paying 2.6x for each unit of growth when this framework prefers below 1.0. The growth is real but expensive, especially with treasuries offering 7x the yield risk-free.

P/E Ratio
WHAT THE INSIDERS KNOWconcerning

Are insiders buying with their own money?

Net insider selling of 1.9 million shares over last 12 months
Insider selling in 13 of 20 quarters with -0.176 correlation to stock price
Co-CEOs received $60+ million primarily in stock awards
Zero meaningful insider buying despite 14.7% discount to DCF fair value

This framework sees only one thing that matters: insiders are selling, not buying. When management systematically reduces exposure during record profitability, they're voting with their wallets that the stock isn't cheap.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
WHERE IN THE STORYmature

Are we in the early, middle, or late innings of this growth story?

Growth decelerating from historical 30%+ to current 15.9%
Operating margins at peak 24.5%, up from 16.9% two years ago
Institutional ownership saturated at 79.4%
Share buybacks consuming 98.5% of operating cash flow

This framework suggests Netflix sits firmly in the middle-to-late innings — growth has moderated from explosive to solid, margins have likely peaked, and capital allocation has shifted from growth investment to returning cash. The easy multibagger days are over.

Operating Margin
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework, Netflix emerges as a mature fast grower with a simple story and fortress balance sheet, but trading at 2.6x PEG with insiders selling suggests the market already knows everything good about this company. The business executes beautifully, expanding margins to 24.5% and generating $9.5 billion in cash, yet this framework would wait for a better price or clearer insider support. When insiders sell during record profitability while institutions own 79.4%, who's left to drive the next leg higher?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Leaning Bearish
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