ONE LEVEL DEEPER
DXCM
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

Record 25.6% operating margins meet 21% of 52-week high pricing — quality on sale when growth slows from 15.6% to 4.2%.

cautiousBullishconviction

A textbook quality business at record profitability selling at distressed prices — when Mr. Market panics at growth deceleration, he creates opportunity.

THE LENSES
THE MOATfortress

Does this business have durable competitive advantages that protect its economics?

Gross margins expanded to 63.5% in Q4'25 from 59.4% in Q4'24
Operating margins reached record 25.6% in Q4'25, highest in company history
Revenue correlates 0.981 with inflation — pricing power through all economic conditions
Switching costs inherent in medical device category with continuous patient monitoring

This framework sees a widening moat. Margins are expanding while competitors struggle, and the business shows rare pricing power that actually strengthens with inflation. When patients depend on your product for daily health monitoring, switching becomes more than inconvenient — it becomes dangerous.

Operating Margin
OWNER EARNINGSexceptional

How much cash does this business really generate for its owners?

Free cash flow of $1.08B TTM with strong $294M operating cash in Q4'25
Stock compensation fell to record low 2.78% of revenue in Q4'25
Owner earnings significantly exceed reported earnings with minimal dilution
Cash conversion cycle improved to 147.1 days in Q4'25

Applying this lens reveals exceptional cash generation. The business throws off over a billion in real owner earnings with minimal stock dilution — exactly the kind of cash machine this framework prizes. Low and declining stock compensation shows management isn't picking shareholders' pockets.

Free Cash Flow
THE OWNER'S MATHattractive

If you bought the whole company today, would the earnings justify the price?

Trading at 24x earnings with 1.04% earnings yield vs 4.33% treasury yield
Price 92.1% above DCF fair value calculation
Stock at 21.27% of 52-week high despite record fundamentals
P/E at 33rd percentile of 10-year range

This framework suggests the market has overcorrected. While the earnings yield spread is negative, the company trades well below its own historical valuation range despite achieving record profitability. At one-third of its typical valuation percentile with the best fundamentals ever, the math works for a patient owner.

P/E Ratio
THE REINVESTMENT TESTimproving

Can this business deploy capital at high rates of return?

ROIC reached all-time high 6.01% in Q4'25, up from negative returns in 2018
ROIC approaching 10.69% cost of capital for first time in company history
Seven-year transformation from -9.72% ROIC to positive returns
Operating leverage of 7.99x amplifies returns on incremental investment

Through this lens, we see a business finally learning to generate returns. While ROIC remains below the cost of capital, the trajectory is remarkable — from destroying value to approaching value creation. The high operating leverage means each dollar reinvested has outsized impact.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a wonderful business temporarily mispriced by a market that confuses deceleration with deterioration. DexCom has achieved record margins, generates over a billion in owner earnings, and trades at one-third its typical valuation despite the best fundamentals in company history. The moat is widening even as growth slows — exactly the kind of mature compounder this framework seeks. When insiders buy $21 million worth of stock at distressed valuations, are they seeing what Mr. Market is missing?

This analysis applies Warren Buffett's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Warren Buffett. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
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