ONE LEVEL DEEPER
WMTWalmart Inc.
Consumer DefensiveDiscount Stores
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

Walmart beats earnings estimates 94.4% of the time yet yields 0.45% at 56x earnings - operational excellence at a growth stock price.

Buffett framework
Leaning Bullish

At 56x earnings, institutions add 322 positions while insiders sell for 15 straight quarters — classic pendulum at euphoria.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $713.2 billion TTM across three segments — discount retail, membership clubs, and digital commerce
Walmart U.S.: 68.4% of revenue — the domestic discount retail operation drives over two-thirds of the business
Sam's Club: 13.2% of revenue from membership warehouse clubs
International: 18.5% of revenue across global markets
Geographic concentration: 81.5% of revenue from United States operations

Walmart operates as the world's largest retailer with heavy concentration in U.S. discount retail. The business model combines physical stores with growing e-commerce capabilities, though two-thirds of revenue still comes from the core Walmart U.S. segment. This concentration provides scale advantages but creates vulnerability to U.S. consumer trends.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett's framework admires the business but balks at 56x earnings, while Marks sees institutions chasing what insiders are fleeing. When legends can't agree if retail's fortress is fairly priced at $126 or worth $182, someone's about to be very wrong. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and see which perspective resonates with your investment philosophy.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Neutral
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Operating cash flow: $41.6 billion TTM with $14.9 billion in free cash flow
Capital allocation: 56.8% of OCF goes to capex, 13.3% to dividends, 7.7% to buybacks in Q1'26
Buyback program: $35.1 billion spent retiring 478 million shares at $73.36 average price
Free cash flow yield: 0.64% in Q1'26 — low yield despite strong absolute cash generation
Cash conversion cycle: 2.64 days in Q1'26, down from 42.1 days in Q2'16

Walmart generates massive cash flows but reinvests heavily in infrastructure, with capex consuming over half of operating cash flow. The company has dramatically improved working capital efficiency, cutting its cash conversion cycle by 94% over the past decade. Despite strong cash generation, the low free cash flow yield reflects the stock's elevated valuation.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue growth: 4.7% TTM, consistent with stalwart classification
Operating income: $8.7 billion in Q1'26, 98th percentile over 10 years
Operating margin: 4.6% in Q1'26 with stable gross margins around 24.7%
Operating leverage: 0.74 coefficient — income growing 30.0% while revenue grows 6.2%
ROIC trend: Stable returns with consistent reinvestment in the business

The business demonstrates operational strength with record operating income, though growth remains modest at 4.7%. Operating leverage below 1.0 suggests efficiency gains are plateauing as the company matures. Margins remain stable but haven't expanded materially, indicating competitive pressures in discount retail.

Operating Income
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Worst drawdown: Free cash flow declined -2,540.5% during Rate Shock 2022, recovering in 1 quarter
Revenue concentration: 68.4% from Walmart U.S. segment, Herfindahl index of 5,189 indicates high concentration
Insider selling: 15 consecutive quarters of net selling totaling -69.0 million shares
Debt load: $67.1 billion in total debt against $284.7 billion in assets
Resilience grade: B — survived COVID, rate shocks, and banking crisis with quick recoveries

Walmart has proven resilient through multiple shocks, recovering from severe free cash flow compression within one quarter. The main risks center on heavy U.S. concentration and persistent insider selling that suggests those closest to the business see limited upside. The company's defensive characteristics help during downturns, but concentration creates vulnerability.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Millennium Management added $45.5B
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 50 qtrs
507new3,936existing4,443holders+322 net4,258staying185exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 36.6% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Walmart Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,820
$1,180 lost. Recovery: 157 days.

At 56x earnings, Walmart generates $8.7 billion in operating income yet yields shareholders just 0.45% — less than a savings account.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 56.03x in Q1'26, 93rd percentile over 10 years
Earnings yield: 0.45% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.88% spread
DCF assessment: Market price $125.79 trades 30.9% below fair value estimate of $182.03
Market-implied growth: 5.43% perpetual growth priced in versus 4.7% trailing growth
Analyst targets: $137 median with range from $120-150 showing moderate dispersion

The market prices Walmart at near-record valuations with a P/E in the 93rd percentile historically. The 0.45% earnings yield creates a significant opportunity cost versus risk-free rates, though DCF analysis suggests potential undervaluation. The market expects modest growth acceleration from current levels, pricing in perpetual growth slightly above recent performance.

P/E Ratio
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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