ONE LEVEL DEEPER
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalApparel - Retail
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Jan 2026

Ross beats earnings 94.7% of the time but offers 1.07% yield versus 4.33% treasuries.

Buffett framework
Leaning Bullish

Operating margins hold at 12.3% while earnings yield sinks to 1.07% — peak operations meet peak valuations.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Off-price retail: Sells brand-name apparel and home goods at discounted prices across 1,755+ stores
Revenue mix: Home Accents/Bed & Bath leads at 26%, followed by Ladies 22%, Mens 16%
Growth trajectory: 7.7% TTM revenue growth with 18.5% revenue growth in Q1'26
Margin profile: 27-28% gross margins maintained consistently despite tariff pressures
Market position: 89.7% institutional ownership reflects professional investor confidence

Ross operates a diversified off-price retail model with no segment exceeding 26% of revenue, reducing concentration risk. The company maintains stable gross margins around 28% by purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers at deep discounts, then marking up for profit while still offering customers 20-60% off regular retail prices.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Buffett's framework admires Ross's 94.7% earnings beat rate but can't stomach paying $220 for a business worth $127, while Lynch sees a PEG below 1.0 — when legends split on peak earnings, someone's wrong. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and discover where your own views align.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Cash generation: $2.88 free cash flow per share in Q1'26 with 1.74x OCF to net income ratio
Capital allocation: 23.4% to buybacks, 17.9% to capex, 11.7% to dividends in Q1'26
Buyback returns: 45.6% gain on $4.9 billion in historical buybacks at $151 average price
Working capital: 7.07 day cash conversion cycle — exceptionally efficient for retail
SBC impact: Minimal at 0.71% of revenue in Q1'26

Ross demonstrates exceptional cash generation with operating cash flow running 74% above net income. The company balances growth investments (17.9% capex) with shareholder returns (35.1% combined buybacks and dividends), while maintaining one of the fastest cash conversion cycles in retail at just 7 days.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Earnings peak: Net income at $645.9M in Q1'26 — 98th percentile over 10 years
Operating leverage: 1.39x coefficient amplifies 18.5% revenue growth to 25.5% operating income growth
Margin stability: Operating margin 12.3% in Q1'26 versus 12.4% in Q1'25
ROIC pressure: 5.19% ROIC trails 7.79% WACC by 260 basis points in Q1'26
Earnings quality: Low accruals ratio of 0.031 indicates high-quality earnings

Ross hits operational peaks across multiple metrics with record quarterly earnings and revenue, yet ROIC falling 260bp below cost of capital signals diminishing returns on invested capital. The 1.39x operating leverage that amplified recent growth will equally magnify any future deceleration.

Operating Income
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

COVID resilience: Survived 58.2% revenue decline and negative $1.06B operating cash flow in Q2'20
Recovery speed: Required only 4 quarters to recover from pandemic lows
Macro sensitivity: Revenue correlation of 0.853 with CPI and -0.7 with unemployment
Concentration risk: Moderate with top segment at 26% and Herfindahl index of 1866
Insider activity: Net selling of 41,999 shares over trailing 12 months despite record earnings

Ross demonstrated remarkable resilience through COVID's 58% revenue collapse, recovering within four quarters. However, the strong correlation with inflation (0.853) and inverse relationship with unemployment (-0.7) creates a macro tightrope where economic softening could quickly pressure both revenue and margins.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Morgan Stanley added $15M
ACCUMULATING9/10 long-term · avg 58 qtrs
236new1,026existing1,262holders+149 net1,175staying87exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 89.7% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Ross Stores, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$5,280
$4,720 lost. Recovery: 653 days.

Ross generates $645.9M in quarterly earnings while trading at 1.07% yield versus 4.33% treasuries — peak operations meet peak valuations.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Valuation gap: Stock at $220 trades 73.2% above DCF value of $127
Earnings yield: 1.07% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 326bp spread
Growth expectations: Market implies 4.54% perpetual growth versus 7.7% trailing growth
Earnings asymmetry: Double misses punished 10.6x more severely than double beats rewarded
Historical context: P/E in 63rd percentile despite earnings at 98th percentile

Ross trades at a significant premium to both intrinsic value and risk-free rates, with the market demanding 326 basis points less yield than treasuries while implying growth will decelerate from 7.7% to 4.54%. The 10.6x punishment ratio for earnings misses versus beats suggests any stumble could trigger outsized downside.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$127
73% premium
MARKET PRICE
$220
Price implies 4.5% growth · Trailing: 7.7%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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