ONE LEVEL DEEPER
QCOM
Warren Buffett frameworkThe Owner-OperatorBenjamin Graham frameworkThe Value ArchitectMichael Mauboussin frameworkThe Expectations EngineerHoward Marks frameworkThe Cycle WhispererPeter Lynch frameworkThe Everyday Edge

At 15.4x earnings with 99% EPS growth, QUALCOMM's PEG of 0.15 screams the kind of value Lynch hunted.

cautiousBullishconviction

This framework sees a fast grower trading like a slow grower — revenue hits records at $12.3B while the market prices it at just 15.4x earnings.

THE LENSES
THE CLASSIFICATIONpromising

What type of company is this, and what should I expect?

TTM revenue growth of 10.3% with Q4'25 revenue at $12.3B (98th percentile)
EPS growth of 1.99x YoY in Q4'25, accelerating from prior quarters
Operating margins stable at 27.5% in Q4'25 vs 25-30% historical range
Sequential revenue growth positive for 4 consecutive quarters

This framework classifies QUALCOMM as a fast grower transitioning toward stalwart territory — the 10.3% revenue growth sits at the boundary, but the 1.99x EPS growth and margin stability suggest the company still has fast grower characteristics. The classification matters because Lynch found his biggest winners among fast growers before they became stalwarts.

Revenue
THE PEG RATIOexceptional

Am I paying a fair price for the growth I'm getting?

P/E ratio of 15.4x in Q4'25 (38th percentile vs 10-year history)
EPS growth of 99% YoY in Q4'25 ($2.78 vs $1.40)
PEG ratio of 0.15 (15.4 P/E divided by 99% growth)
Forward consensus expects continued double-digit EPS growth

Applying this lens reveals exceptional value — a PEG of 0.15 is exactly what Lynch spent his career hunting for. Even using more conservative 10% forward growth estimates yields a PEG of 1.5, still reasonable by Lynch standards. This is a rare case where growth dramatically exceeds the multiple.

P/E Ratio
THE GROWTH STORYclear

Can I explain to an eleven-year-old why this company grows?

QCT segment (87.3% of revenue) makes chips for phones, cars, and smart devices
China represents 62.5% of revenue — billions of devices need QUALCOMM chips
Automotive revenue growing as cars become computers on wheels
5G rollout continues globally, requiring QUALCOMM's technology

The growth story is crystal clear: QUALCOMM makes the chips that power smartphones and increasingly cars, with massive market opportunity as devices get smarter. This framework values simplicity, and "we make the brains for smartphones" passes the eleven-year-old test perfectly.

Revenue by Segment
WHERE IN THE STORYmature

Am I early, on time, or late to this growth story?

Revenue at all-time high of $12.3B in Q4'25 (98th percentile)
Growth decelerating from prior peaks but still positive at 10.3%
Margins holding steady at 27.5%, not expanding
Stock down 45.1% from peak despite record revenue

This framework sees middle-to-late innings — the easy growth from smartphone adoption is behind us, but the automotive and AI device opportunity provides a second act. The 45% drawdown despite record revenue suggests the market sees late innings, creating potential opportunity if the second act delivers.

Free Cash Flow
KEY NUMBERS
VERDICT

Applying this framework reveals a classic Lynch opportunity: a fast grower being priced like a slow grower, with a PEG of 0.15 that would make any growth investor salivate. The growth story remains simple and powerful — QUALCOMM makes essential chips for an increasingly connected world. While insider selling and middle-innings position temper enthusiasm, the valuation disconnect creates the kind of opportunity Lynch built his reputation finding. The question isn't whether QUALCOMM is a good company — it's whether the market will recognize what the numbers already show?

This analysis applies Peter Lynch's published investment framework to publicly available financial data. It is not authored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Peter Lynch. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
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Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
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