ONE LEVEL DEEPER
AVGOBroadcom Inc.
TechnologySemiconductors
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Feb 2026

At 51.5% ROIC versus 14.6% WACC, Broadcom's value creation spread of 37 points challenges market expectations of growth collapsing from 25% to 8%.

Mauboussin framework
Bullish

When operating margins hit 90th percentile at 44.95% and insiders sell for 11 straight quarters, the cycle pendulum has swung too far.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue: $63.9B in FY2025 across two segments — semiconductors and infrastructure software
Semiconductor Solutions: $36.9B (58% of revenue) including AI accelerators and networking chips
Infrastructure Software: $27.0B (42% of revenue) primarily VMware cloud infrastructure
Geographic mix: Asia Pacific drives 56.2% of revenue, Americas 29.6%, EMEA 14.2%
Revenue growth: 61.4% YoY in Q1'26, with TTM growth of 25.2%

Broadcom operates a dual-engine business model where custom semiconductors for AI and cloud infrastructure software generate roughly equal contributions. The Asia Pacific concentration reflects where the world's electronics are manufactured, while the 61% growth rate shows the AI boom driving both segments.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Mauboussin sees a 37-point value spread with margins sustainably widening, while Marks watches insiders dump $1.25 billion at peak profitability — when operating margins hit 45%, why are those running the business running for the exits? Tap any framework below to explore their full analysis.

Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Bullish
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Neutral
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Neutral
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Free cash flow: $8.0B in Q1'26, representing 41% of quarterly revenue
Share buybacks: $7.85B in Q1'26 — 95% of operating cash flow
Dividends: $3.09B quarterly, adding another 37% of OCF to shareholder returns
R&D investment: $2.97B (15.4% of revenue) maintaining innovation pipeline
Stock compensation: 11.3% of revenue goes to employee equity awards

Broadcom converts 41 cents of every revenue dollar into free cash flow, then returns 132% of operating cash flow to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. The company funds this aggressive capital return while maintaining substantial R&D investment, though stock compensation dilutes shareholders at double-digit rates.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin: Expanded from 17.4% in Q1'24 to 44.95% in Q1'26
ROIC: 51.5% versus WACC of 14.6% — value spread of 37 percentage points
Revenue trajectory: Q1'26 revenue of $19.3B up 61.4% YoY
EBITDA margin: 68% in latest quarter, demonstrating pricing power
Moat assessment: Widening, with semiconductor margins stable at 68% despite competition

Every key metric shows dramatic improvement — margins more than doubled, returns on capital tripled the cost of capital, and growth accelerated. This isn't gradual improvement but a step-function change in profitability as AI demand transformed the business economics.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Concentration: Semiconductor segment represents 57.7% of revenue with Herfindahl index of 5118
Insider behavior: Net selling for 11 consecutive quarters, estimated $1.25B over trailing year
Operating leverage: 0.39 coefficient means profits more volatile than revenue
Stress history: Maintained positive margins through COVID, rate shocks, and banking crisis
Geographic risk: 56.2% revenue from Asia Pacific creates supply chain exposure

While the company demonstrated resilience through multiple market shocks, current risks center on concentration — both in semiconductor revenues and Asian manufacturing. The persistent insider selling during record profitability suggests those closest to the business see limited upside or elevated risk at current levels.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Price T Rowe Associates Inc added $888M
ACCUMULATING9/10 long-term · avg 29 qtrs
585new4,248existing4,833holders+362 net4,610staying223exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 77.4% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Broadcom Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,650
$1,350 lost. Recovery: 102 days.

Broadcom generates $8.0 billion in quarterly free cash flow — 41% of revenue — yet trades at a 0.51% FCF yield, the lowest in company history.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 53.4x earnings, in the 83rd percentile of 10-year range
Earnings yield: 0.47% versus 4.33% treasury yield — paying 9x premium for equity risk
Market expectations: Implies 7.66% perpetual growth versus 25.2% trailing growth
FCF yield: 0.51% despite record cash generation — 5th percentile of 10-year range
Valuation gap: Price 25.9% above DCF estimate suggests aggressive growth assumptions

The market prices Broadcom for sustained excellence — accepting one-ninth the yield of risk-free bonds while expecting growth to decelerate from 25% to 8%. This valuation assumes current 45% operating margins persist indefinitely despite technology cycles and competitive dynamics.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$246
26% premium
MARKET PRICE
$310
Price implies 7.7% growth · Trailing: 25.2%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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