ONE LEVEL DEEPER
MARMarriott International, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalTravel Lodging
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

At 0.53% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries, Marriott offers hospitality risk with sub-treasury returns.

Buffett framework
Leaning Bullish

With revenue at 95th percentile historically, everyone agrees Marriott is excellent — Marks warns that's precisely when risk maximizes.

Marks framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Manages 9,800+ properties across 145 countries through franchise and management contracts — not ownership
Reimbursements: 60.8% of revenue — the largest segment by far
Fee Service and Franchise: 27.4% combined — pure margin businesses
Operating margin: 11.6% in Q4'25 — asset-light model shows in the numbers
Geographic mix: 82.4% domestic, 17.6% international — heavy US concentration

Marriott operates as a capital-light toll collector on global hospitality, earning fees for managing properties that others own and operate. The 60.8% revenue concentration in reimbursements masks the real profit drivers — the 27.4% from fees and franchises that flow straight to the bottom line.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

When Buffett calls Marriott 'well-managed' but warns of its 0.53% earnings yield versus 4.33% treasuries, and Marks sees 'peak excellence creating maximum risk,' what are institutions buying that legends won't? Tap any framework below to explore their full reasoning — from Graham's margin of safety concerns at 65% above intrinsic value to Lynch's stalwart classification despite growth stock pricing.

Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bearish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Leaning Bearish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Leaning Bearish
Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Buybacks: $3.3B over last four quarters — 10.5x higher than capex
Capex: $314M — minimal reinvestment needs for asset-light model
Dividends: $718M — modest payout alongside aggressive repurchases
SBC: 0.97% of revenue in Q4'25 — minimal dilution
Negative equity: -$3.8B in Q4'25 — aggressive capital returns created this

The asset-light model generates cash that management aggressively returns to shareholders — $3.3B in buybacks dwarfs the $314M needed to run the business. This capital allocation strategy has pushed equity negative, a financial engineering choice that works until credit markets tighten.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Revenue: $6.69B in Q4'25 — 95th percentile historically
Revenue growth: 4.3% TTM — steady but not accelerating
Operating margin: 11.6% in Q4'25 — stable within historical range
ROIC: 2.92% versus WACC 8.31% — destroying value despite growth
Services segment: 26.2% of revenue, up from 19.8% three years ago

Revenue sits at historical highs but growth has moderated to 4.3%, suggesting market maturity. The shift toward higher-margin services revenue provides some offset, but ROIC below WACC indicates the business generates growth that destroys economic value.

ROIC vs Cost of Capital
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

COVID impact: Revenue fell 72.7% in Q2'20 — took 10 quarters to recover
Revenue concentration: 60.8% from reimbursements — Herfindahl index 4167
Geographic concentration: 82.4% domestic exposure
Insider selling: Net disposals for 3 consecutive quarters through Q4'25
Operating leverage: 0.34 coefficient — relatively stable cost structure

The COVID crash proved both Marriott's vulnerability and resilience — a 72.7% revenue decline followed by full recovery in 10 quarters. Current risks center on concentration, with 60.8% of revenue from one segment and 82.4% from domestic markets, while insiders reduce exposure at peak valuations.

Revenue Concentration
4,167
HERFINDAHL INDEX
high
Reimbursements
61%
Fee Service
17%
Franchise
10%
Management Service, Base
7%
Owned, Leased and Other
5%
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Fmr added $67M
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 51 qtrs
232new1,378existing1,610holders+112 net1,490staying120exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 60.3% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Marriott International, Inc.'s worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$8,570
$1,430 lost. Recovery: 120 days.

With ROIC at 2.92% versus WACC at 8.31%, Marriott proves that growth without value creation is just expensive motion.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

P/E ratio: 46.8x — 83rd percentile over 10 years
Earnings yield: 0.53% versus 4.33% treasury yield — negative 3.8% spread
Price vs DCF: $332 current versus $201 DCF value — 65% premium
Implied growth: 4.91% perpetual versus 4.3% trailing
Double beat reaction: +1.48% average gain — limited upside on good news

At 46.8x earnings with a 0.53% yield versus 4.33% treasuries, the market prices Marriott for perpetual growth acceleration. The 65% premium to DCF value requires 4.91% eternal growth, while earnings beats generate only 1.48% gains — suggesting most optimism is already priced in.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$201
65% premium
MARKET PRICE
$332
Price implies 4.9% growth · Trailing: 4.3%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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