ONE LEVEL DEEPER
CMCSAComcast Corporation
Communication ServicesTelecommunications Services
Analysis generated March 2026 · Data through Dec 2025

Operating margins at 10.8% hit decade lows while free cash flow yield reached 5.0% decade highs—the pendulum overshot.

Marks framework
Bullish

Zero revenue growth with margins plunging 480bp to 10.8% - Lynch would classify this slow grower and move on.

Lynch framework
Bearish
1
THE BUSINESS MODEL

What does this company do and how does it make money?

Revenue structure: 53.5% from Residential Connectivity, 20.5% Media, 8.5% Studios, 7.7% Business Services
Geographic mix: 76.9% domestic US, 12.3% Europe, 10.8% other international markets
Revenue concentration: Herfindahl index of 3472 indicates high dependence on core connectivity business
Q4'25 revenue growth: 3.6% YoY with 0% TTM growth — mature infrastructure business

Comcast operates as a connectivity-first company despite its media diversification narrative, with residential broadband and cable driving over half of revenue. The 3472 Herfindahl index reveals concentration risk that NBCUniversal's content and theme parks haven't meaningfully offset.

Revenue by Segment
2
WHAT THE LEGENDS SEE

Five legendary investment frameworks analyzed this company.

Marks sees Comcast's 5.0% FCF yield as a 'classic pendulum overshoot' while Lynch calls it a 'slow grower in decline'—the same $5.1B quarterly cash flow means opposite things to different legends. Tap any framework below to explore their complete analysis and discover where they see opportunity or risk.

Howard Marks framework
The Cycle Whisperer
Bullish
Benjamin Graham framework
The Value Architect
Leaning Bullish
Michael Mauboussin framework
The Expectations Engineer
Neutral
Warren Buffett framework
The Owner-Operator
Leaning Bearish
Peter Lynch framework
The Everyday Edge
Bearish
3
FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much cash does it generate and where does it go?

Operating cash flow: $8.8B in Q4'25, 4.4x higher than net income of $2.0B
Free cash flow: $5.1B quarterly after $3.7B capex (42% of OCF to infrastructure)
Capital allocation Q4'25: 42% capex, 17% buybacks, 14% dividends of operating cash flow
Buyback program: $45.5B spent at $44.27 average price vs $27.93 current — 36.9% underwater
Cash conversion: -39.5 day cycle indicates efficient working capital with negative funding needs

Comcast generates substantial cash ($8.8B quarterly OCF) but allocates it poorly, with buybacks destroying $16.8B in shareholder value. The consistent 42% infrastructure spend reveals the capital-intensive reality beneath the content narrative.

Capital Allocation
4
CHECK THE TREND

Is the business getting stronger or weaker?

Operating margin collapse: 15.6% in Q4'24 to 10.8% in Q4'25 — lowest in 10 years
Operating leverage: -8.6x in Q4'25 — every $1 of revenue growth destroys $8.60 of operating income
Revenue at 98th percentile of 10-year range while margins hit 0th percentile
Free cash flow yield: 5.0% in Q4'25, highest in decade despite margin compression
Stock-based compensation: Dropped to 0% of revenue in Q4'25 from historical 1.0-1.4%

The business is deteriorating rapidly with margins compressing 480 basis points in a single year while revenue grows modestly. The -8.6x operating leverage reveals severe competitive pressure where growth comes at the direct expense of profitability.

Operating Margin
5
KNOW THE RISKS

What could go wrong and has it survived trouble before?

Insider selling: Net disposal of 2.8M shares ($78M estimate) over trailing 4 quarters
Interest coverage: 3.1x in Q4'25 at 0th percentile — lowest debt service ability in decade
Worst drawdown: -31.8% during 2022 rate shock with 474bp margin compression
Revenue concentration: 53.5% from Residential Connectivity with 3472 Herfindahl index
Institutional ownership surge: 79.1% to 83.4% while insiders exit positions

Management's net selling while institutions accumulate reveals internal concern about competitive pressures. The 3.1x interest coverage at historical lows combines with high revenue concentration to create vulnerability to any disruption in the core cable business.

Insider Net Buying/Selling
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Norges Bank opened a $2.5B position
ACCUMULATING8/10 long-term · avg 54 qtrs
250new1,910existing2,160holders-68 net1,842staying318exited
Latest 13F filings · 2025-12-31 · 83.4% institutional ownership
INTERACTIVE
How would Comcast Corporation's worst drawdowns feel?
INVESTED
$10,000
BOTTOM
$4,040
$5,960 lost. Recovery: Not recovered.

Operating leverage of -8.6x in Q4'25 means every dollar of revenue growth destroys $8.60 of operating income.

6
CHECK THE PRICE

Is the stock priced for perfection, fair value, or pessimism?

Earnings yield: 1.94% vs 4.33% treasury yield — 239bp negative spread
Market expectations: 91.8% below DCF fair value with -13.4% implied growth rate
Earnings beat rate: 92% success (36 of 39 quarters) yet stock falls -1.62% on beats
Valuation percentiles: P/FCF at 0th percentile, EV/EBITDA at 18th percentile of 10-year range
52-week position: 25.4% — trading near annual lows despite revenue at decade highs

The market prices in structural decline with a -13.4% implied growth rate, creating the widest gap between fundamentals and valuation in a decade. Even consistent earnings beats trigger selloffs, indicating the market expects deterioration regardless of reported results.

Expectations Gap: DCF vs Market
DCF FAIR VALUE
$341
92% discount
MARKET PRICE
$28
Price implies -13.4% growth · Trailing: 0.0%
INTERACTIVE
Earnings Surprise Roulette
What type of surprise moves the stock most? Tap to find out.

Analysis applies published investment frameworks to publicly available financial data. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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